[ RadSafe ] Selecting one cancer "risk" near certain nuclear plants

[John Jacobus]

Dr. Long is certainly correct.  Selection or bias is a "sin" in epidemiology.  So is cherry-picking data or incomplete analysis of the data, as in the Taiwan study which is so seriously flawed no respectable epidemiologist would touch it.

howard long <hflong at pacbell.net> wrote:  SELECTION = SIN (foundation of epidemiology)
Chance alone will give 5 of every 100 studies "statistical significance" (p .05 by chance alone),
close to the 37 cases where just 17 were expected, on the average. 
Would they have reported negative studies? How many were considered?

Experiment is needed. Natural experiment of Taiwan apt 0.4Sv addition from CO 60 in the steel
(hundreds of times any addition to the German dose, certainly less than its radon spa dose)
to 10,000 residents for 9-20 years, resulted in only 3.5 cancers/100,000 person -years
vs 116 expected, more likely prevention of cancer by chronic radiation. 

Did you hear the story about the statistician who drowned, while wading across a creek 
that averaged just 6" deep?

Howard Long 



----- Original Message ----
From: Bjorn Cedervall 
To: radsafe at radlab.nl
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2007 3:03:17 AM
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Child cancer risk higher near nuclear plants: study


Radsafers,

Any comments to the following?:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071208/hl_nm/cancer_germany_dc

My personal action only,

Bjorn Cedervall bcradsafers at hotmail.com

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"Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak, Courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen." -- Sir Winston Churchill

-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
e-mail:  crispy_bird at yahoo.com
       
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