[ RadSafe ] Communicating Uncertainty

[Ruth Sponsler]

Dear Dr. Morris -

I like the idea a lot!  The public has been introduced
to a set of terms, which brings familiarity. 

Many, if not most of HPs' safety communications are in
the "'virtually certain' [such-and-such process] is
safe" category of 99% or better.

Many risk assessment standards are a couple levels of
certainty higher, also, at the 99.99% level or higher.
 Perhaps this could be called "exquisitely certain."

Those terms are great, and I think they're good
"benchmarks."  Nuclear technology risks, since they're
usually quite well-known, will usually fall into a
well-defined category of solid certainty.

Best wishes!

~Ruth
http://wesupportlee.blogspot.com/


--- Robert Morris <robert_morris at mhchew.com> wrote:

> The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)
> is in the news now for
> their report on climate change.  This group had to
> tackle the similar
> communication problems that our profession faces: 
> how to communicate
> technical concepts in terms the general public can
> understand and accept.
> In my opinion they have done a fine job of it.  
> 
>  
> 
> I suggest that health physicists begin using the
> ideas in their four page
> publication "Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the
> IPCC Fourth Assessment
> Report on Addressing Uncertainties." (July 2005)  
> 
>  
> 
>
http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/uncertaintyguidancenote.pdf
> 
>  
> 
> In that document they say "communicate carefully,
> using calibrated
> language," and they provide some useful definitions
> of confidence level:  
> 
> "Very High" confidence means at least 9 our of 10
> change of being correct.
> 
> "High" confidence means about 8 out of 10 change of
> being correct.
> 
> And so on.
> 
>  
> 
> They also define a likelihood scale in which
> "virtually certain" means there
> is a greater than 99% probability of occurrence or
> outcome.  On this scale
> "likely" means greater than 66% probability of
> occurrence or outcome.
> 
>  
> 
> What do you think?
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
> Robert L. Morris, M.S., CHP  CIH
> 
> Principal Health Physicist
> 
> MH Chew & Associates, Inc.
> 
> 7985 N. Vance Dr. Suite 307
> 
> Arvada, Colorado  80003
> 
>  
> 
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