[ RadSafe ] Communicating Uncertainty

Sat Feb 3 09:44:34 CST 2007

I'm not sure this applies.  They are talking about the certainty in the model of an absolute risk.  But being "virtually certain" that 1 mrem (or 10 rem) rad dose is "less than 1 in a million" may not help. 

How do you anticipate this would be used? 

Regards, Jim

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl on behalf of Robert Morris
Sent: Fri 2/2/2007 5:17 PM
To: radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Communicating Uncertainty

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is in the news now for
their report on climate change.  This group had to tackle the similar
communication problems that our profession faces:  how to communicate
technical concepts in terms the general public can understand and accept.
In my opinion they have done a fine job of it.  

I suggest that health physicists begin using the ideas in their four page
publication "Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report on Addressing Uncertainties." (July 2005)  

http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/uncertaintyguidancenote.pdf

In that document they say "communicate carefully, using calibrated
language," and they provide some useful definitions of confidence level:  

"Very High" confidence means at least 9 our of 10 change of being correct.

"High" confidence means about 8 out of 10 change of being correct.

And so on.

They also define a likelihood scale in which "virtually certain" means there
is a greater than 99% probability of occurrence or outcome.  On this scale
"likely" means greater than 66% probability of occurrence or outcome.

What do you think?

Robert L. Morris, M.S., CHP  CIH

Principal Health Physicist

MH Chew & Associates, Inc.

7985 N. Vance Dr. Suite 307

Arvada, Colorado  80003

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