[ RadSafe ] Re: Differences in Background radiation and disease incidence

[Bernard L. Cohen]

Otto Raabe wrote:

> At 07:04 PM 2/9/2007, Eric D wrote:
>
>> Has anyone addressed the problem of low dose effects by estimating 
>> how large
>> the radiation risk coefficient would need to be to have statistically
>> significant differences in disease rates between areas of differing
>> backgrounds?
>
          ---The problem is that the "powers that be" refuse to consider 
such evidence. My radon study does what you say with tremendous 
statistical accuracy, and it treats over 500 potential confounding 
factors, and does a lot of other things with no statistical uncertainty, 
but it is ignored. They refuse to even consider an ecological study and 
they ignore all the evidence I have presented.


> **********************************
> Assuming the ICRP linear model of cancer risk from exposure to 
> ionizing radiation with a risk coefficient of 0.05 per Sv or 0.0005 
> per rem, and assuming the average annual dose in the U.S. from natural 
> background of ionizing radiation is 0.3 rem per year, a 70 year old 
> person would have received about 21 rem from background over a 
> lifetime. The cancer risk predicted by the linear mathematical model 
> would be 21 X 0.0005 or about 1%. About 35% of people in the U.S. 
> develop cancer during their lifetime, so a 1% "risk", even if it were 
> correct, would be lost in the noise. As you can verify by checking 
> with the American Cancer Society tables, those States with the highest 
> background radiation tend to have the lowest cancer rates.  For 
> example, Colorado has one of the lowest cancer rates among the States, 
> but the background radiation exposure for residents of Colorado is 
> more than two times the national average. Obviously, there are other 
> factors beside radiation that are more important in determining cancer 
> risk. In fact, there is no known or expected risk associated with 
> normal levels of natural background radiation
>
> Otto
>
>
> **********************************************
> Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
> Center for Health & the Environment
> University of California
> One Shields Avenue
> Davis, CA 95616
> E-Mail: ograabe at ucdavis.edu
> Phone: (530) 752-7754   FAX: (530) 758-6140
> ***********************************************  
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