AW: [ RadSafe ] Excess relative risk No labels please!

parthasarathy k s ksparth at yahoo.co.uk
Tue Feb 12 20:02:10 CST 2008


Dear Dr Cohen,

It may not be appropriate to label any one like the way you did! Once in a scientific seminar, one of the"scientists" argued that "epidemiologists" are astrologers. Though many Indian scientists are scientists  only in the lab and follow  "astrology"  to decide  more serious matters such as marriage! 

Some of them follow other cranky beliefs. During a solar eclipse, a few scientists who were carrying out scientific observations refused to eat biscuits offered by enterprising journalists; the superstitious  do not eat during eclipse!

Regards
K.S.Parthasarathy

----- Original Message ----
From: Bernard L. Cohen <blc+ at pitt.edu>
To: John Jacobus <crispy_bird at yahoo.com>
Cc: Rainer.Facius at dlr.de; radsafe at radlab.nl
Sent: Wednesday, 13 February, 2008 2:17:57 AM
Subject: Re: AW: [ RadSafe ] Excess relative risk

  
  
I 
hope 
this 
does 
not 
sound 
too 
radical: 
In 
my 
experience, 
epidemiologists 
are 
not 
*scientists* 
in 
the 
broad 
sense 
of 
that 
term. 
They 
practice 
a 
*technology* 
which 
has 
been 
"boxed" 
and 
they 
are 
not 
willing 
to 
think 
outside 
that 
box. 
For 
any 
new 
ideas 
or 
approaches, 
it 
is 
"their 
way 
or 
the 
highway"; 
they 
reject 
them 
with 
only 
the 
shallowest 
reasoning, 
or 
more 
commonly 
ignore 
them. 
That 
is 
not 
the 
way 
scientists 
have 
traditionally 
operated. 
If 
physicists 
operated 
that 
way, 
we 
would 
never 
have 
had 
quantum 
theory, 
relativity, 
or 
any 
of 
the 
many 
great 
advances 
of 
20th 
century 
physics.
  
  
Their 
box 
has 
been 
successful 
in 
many 
applications, 
but 
it 
is 
prone 
to 
failure 
where 
statistics 
are 
marginal 
or 
where 
there 
can 
be 
multiple 
confounding 
factors. 
They 
customarily 
treat 
the 
latter 
with 
multiple 
regression 
analysis 
which 
is 
fraught 
with 
dangers 
-- 
they 
call 
this 
"adjusting 
for 
confounding 
factors", 
factors 
they 
select 
with 
something 
less 
than 
air-tight 
reasoning.
  
  
If 
2 
or 
3 
epidemiologists 
take 
a 
position, 
a 
"consensus" 
forms 
without 
those 
who 
constitute 
the 
consensus 
spending 
any 
time 
or 
thought 
on 
the 
subject. 
They 
just 
don't 
like 
to 
think 
outside 
their 
box. 
They 
seem 
to 
have 
no 
experience 
in 
doing 
that.
  
  
  

John 
Jacobus 
wrote:
> 
One 
of 
the 
purposes 
of 
a 
skeptic 
is 
not 
so 
much 
to 
challenge 
as 
to 
present 
what 
is 
unknown.  
>  
  
>  
 
I 
have 
been 
accussed 
of 
being 
silent.  
I 
am 
not 
an 
epidemiologist, 
so 
I 
have 
to 
relie 
on 
those 
who 
are 
recognized 
experts. 
(If 
you 
choose 
to 
ignore 
the 
conclusion 
of 
experts, 
that 
is 
your 
choice.)  
 
The 
consensus 
has 
been 
that 
there 
are 
no 
demonstracted 
effects 
below 
100 
mSv.  
Neither 
harmful 
or 
beneficial.  
All 
studies 
are 
individual 
pieces 
of 
a 
puzzle.  
To 
date, 
the 
well-known 
epidemiologists 
have 
reached 
the 
conclusion 
stated 
above.  
Individual 
studies 
may 
support 
your 
position 
or 
mine, 
but 
the 
concensus 
has 
always 
remained 
the 
same.  
 
>  
  
>  
 
Your 
uncited 
comments 
below 
are 
interesting, 
but 
how 
do 
they 
fit 
in 
the 
overall 
study 
of 
radiation 
effects?  
I 
have 
seen 
some 
studies 
that 
do 
show 
negative 
slopes.  
We 
can 
all 
cherry 
pick 
the 
data 
that 
supports 
our 
positions, 
but 
what 
do 
the 
experts 
say?  
>  
  
>  
 
>
> 
Rainer.Facius at dlr.de 
wrote:
>  
 
"Of 
course, 
there 
is 
no 
proof 
of 
negative 
excess 
risk."
>
> 
John:
>
> 
Your 
silence 
regarding 
several 
invitations 
to 
name/present 
what 
YOU 
consider 
the 
best 
proof 
of 
a 
positive 
excess 
relative 
risk 
for 
cancer 
also 
supports 
the 
reverse 
statement 
(with 
respect 
to 
your 
appraisal 
at 
least):
>
> 
"Of 
course, 
there 
is 
no 
proof 
of 
positive 
excess 
risk." 
>
> 
(for 
chronic 
low 
dose 
exposures 
up 
to 
around 
600 
mSv; 
for 
acute 
exposures 
such 
as 
the 
ATB 
survivors, 
peer 
reviewed 
published 
analyses 
demonstrate 
that 
even 
these 
data 
are 
compatible 
with 
'no 
effect' 
up 
to 
about 
200 
mSv) 
>
> 
By 
the 
way, 
you 
have 
been 
confronted 
here 
with 
data 
plots 
from 
half 
a 
dozen 
or 
so 
epidemiological 
studies 
of 
human 
(not 
to 
speak 
of 
animal 
laboratory 
experiments) 
cancer 
induction 
(lung 
cancer 
comes 
to 
my 
mind 
as 
well 
as 
the 
breast 
cancer 
incidence 
in 
babies 
which 
have 
been 
treated 
for 
hemangioma) 
which 
exhibit 
(sometimes 
marked) 
negative 
slopes 
in 
the 
initial 
dose 
region.
>
> 
Part 
of 
the 
discrepancy 
appears 
to 
reside 
in 
what 
you 
are 
inclined 
to 
accept 
as 
'proof'.
>
> 
Kind 
regards, 
Rainer 
>
> 
Dr. 
Rainer 
Facius
> 
German 
Aerospace 
Center
> 
Institute 
of 
Aerospace 
Medicine
> 
Linder 
Hoehe
> 
51147 
Koeln
> 
GERMANY
> 
Voice: 
+49 
2203 
601 
3147 
or 
3150
> 
FAX: 
+49 
2203 
61970
>
> 
-----Ursprüngliche 
Nachricht-----
> 
Von: 
radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl 
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] 
Im 
Auftrag 
von 
John 
Jacobus
> 
Gesendet: 
Samstag, 
26. 
Januar 
2008 
23:09
> 
An: 
howard 
long; 
Otto 
G. 
Raabe; 
radsafe at radlab.nl
> 
Betreff: 
Re: 
[ 
RadSafe 
] 
Excess 
relative 
risk
>
> 
Of 
course, 
there 
is 
no 
proof 
of 
negative 
excess 
risk. 
>
>
> 
howard 
long 
wrote:
> 
What 
would 
make 
clear 
in 
that 
formula 
that 
kD 
is 
a 
NEGATIVE 
excess 
relative 
risk 
when 
radiation 
exposure 
is 
under 
~20cGy 
(rad), 
rapid 
rate, 
i.e. 
hormesis? 
+-kD?
>
> 
Howard 
Long
>
>
>
> 
+++++++++++++++++++
> 
"If 
history 
teaches 
any 
lesson 
it 
is 
that 
no 
nation 
has 
an 
inherent 
right 
to 
greatness.  
Greatness 
has 
to 
be 
earned 
and 
continually 
re-earned."
> 
- 
Norman 
Augustine, 
Chairman 
of 
the 
National 
Academies 
Committee 
>
> 
-- 
John
> 
John 
Jacobus, 
MS
> 
Certified 
Health 
Physicist
> 
e-mail:  
crispy_bird at yahoo.com
>  
  
  
  
> 
---------------------------------
> 
Be 
a 
better 
friend, 
newshound, 
and 
know-it-all 
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Yahoo! 
Mobile.  
Try 
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> 
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-- 
Bernard 
L. 
Cohen
Physics 
Dept., 
University 
of 
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, 
PA 
15260
Tel: 
(412)624-9245  
Fax: 
(412)624-9163
e-mail: 
blc at pitt.edu  
web 
site: 
http://www.phyast.pitt.edu/~blc


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