[ RadSafe ] EMPs credibility

Thu Jul 31 14:52:27 CDT 2008

Brian, no one thought 19 twits could enter the US, take flight training for months, hijack 4 airliners with only box cutters and then kill over 3000 people and reak havok on the scale of 9-11 before that happened either!   I'ld rather they try to forcast the incredible than miss the possible.   I personally have thought of several ways a dedicated small group (20) could do a repeat without ANY special tech and without getting caught, killing thousands and costing trillions... and it scares the stuffing out of me to think THEY might figure these things out.   One just has to look at the recent salmonella scare.

Mike, Doug, George...

Not my field of expertise, but... from wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse

According to an internet primer published by the Federation of American Scientists[2]

A high-altitude nuclear detonation produces an immediate flux of gamma rays from the nuclear reactions within the device. These photons in turn produce high energy free electrons by Compton scattering at altitudes between (roughly) 20 and 40 km. These electrons are then trapped in the Earth's magnetic field, giving rise to an oscillating electric current. This current is asymmetric in general and gives rise to a rapidly rising radiated electromagnetic field called an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Because the electrons are trapped essentially simultaneously, a very large electromagnetic source radiates coherently. 
The pulse can easily span continent-sized areas, and this radiation can affect systems on land, sea, and air. The first recorded EMP incident accompanied a high-altitude nuclear test over the South Pacific and resulted in power system failures as far away as Hawaii. A large device detonated at 400–500 km (250 to 312 miles) over Kansas would affect all of the continental U.S. The signal from such an event extends to the visual horizon as seen from the burst point. 

According to the accompaning wiki graphs:

A: a device delivered 400 km over North Dakota would deliver a 25,000 v/m EM pulse to most of the continental US (Red states) due to the earth's magnetic field.

B: a device with a nominal 10 kt promt gamma (approx 100 kt total yield) detonated at 300 km would generate 50,000 v/m, 4 kA/m at ground zero.

C: a SINGLE device detonated 300 miles over Kansas would affect the entire continental US and a good portion of Canada and Mexico... almost 3000 miles diameter...  

         We're talking NO unhardened computers or electronics, no GPS, Aircraft falling out of the sky, no financial systems, no electricity, etc...   

The American 1.4 Mt Starfish test at 400-km, on 9 July 1962, induced large EMP currents in the overhead wires of 30 strings of Oahu streetlights, each string having 10 lights (300 streetlights in all). The induced current was sufficient to blow the fuses. EMP currents in the power lines set off ‘hundreds’ of household burglar alarms and opened many power line circuit breakers. On the island of Kauai, EMP closed down telephone calls to the other islands despite the 1962 sturdy relay (electromechanical) telephone technology, by damaging the equipment in a microwave link:  Oahu was over 1300 km away from Starfish ground zero.   http://glasstone.blogspot.com/2006/03/emp-radiation-from-nuclear-space.html   (A VERY SCARY READ!!! )  Can you say 'Stone Age'?   Sure, I knew you could...

This was 1962, there were NO micro-electronics then.   I have seen a 2004 computer's modem and a weather station's power supply fried from a lightning strike 10 miles from the SURGE PROTECTED data line buried in the dry Arizona desert out in the middle of nowhere.     

According to a 2006 Congressional report titled "High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and High Power Microwave (HPM) Devices: Threat Assessments"   http://www.fas.org/man/crs/RL32544.pdf     ... even a single, specially designed low-yield nuclear explosion high above the United States, or over a battlefield, can produce a large-scale EMP effect that could result in a widespread loss of electronics, but no direct deaths, and may not necessarily evoke a large nuclear retaliatory strike by the U.S. military. This, coupled with the possible vulnerability of U.S. commercial electronics and U.S. military battlefield equipment to the effects of EMP, may create a new incentive for other countries to develop or acquire a nuclear capability. 

GEORGE, as far as I'm concerned, I want a Patriot System on every street corner WORLDWIDE.

DOUG,  In an article titled, "Electronics to Determine Fate of Future Wars," an Iranian Military journal explains how an attack on America's electronic infrastructure, would bring the country to its knees.    ("Electronics to Determine Fate of Future Wars," Nashriyeh e Siasi Nezami, 1999.)  In 2001, this same journal stated   “Terrorist information warfare [includes] using the technology of directed energy weapons (DEW) or electromagnetic pulse (EMP).” 

After breezing thru FAS's primer page on EMP ( http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/emp.htm ) and the rest of the above sources, this scares the shiite out of me.  Is that credible enough for you?  Again, not my field, argue the math and politics with them.

Radmax

-----Original Message----- 
From: "Brennan, Mike (DOH)" 
Sent: Jul 30, 2008 2:21 PM 
To: radsafe at radlab.nl 
Subject: RE: [ RadSafe ] HAARPy Rosalie and EMPs 

So, the United States has a surface area of call it 10,000,000 km^2. Lets say that only 1% needs to be EMPed achieve Dr. Graham's back-to-basics vision (I actually doubt you could get such a techno-kill even with 100% coverage, but I am being generous). That means you need to cover 100,000 km^2 with warheads. Let's say you have weapons that would get the pulse you want over a circle 10 km in radius (I suspect that is generous, but I don't actually know). That means you need about 320 weapons and delivery systems. Given the spread of the targets and the range of the weapons, you would need a number of ships to launch them, including at least a couple in the Great Lakes. While our intelligence community has on occasions missed things they should have spotted, I find it difficult that an operation of this size would slip by.

I find his scenario less than credible. 

-----Original Message----- 
From: "Riely, Brian P." 
Sent: Jul 31, 2008 5:28 AM 
To: "Brennan, Mike (DOH)" , radsafe at radlab.nl 
Subject: RE: [ RadSafe ] HAARPy Rosalie and EMPs 

Mike

I agree that Dr. Graham's scenario is not credible; however, in theory
you can cover all of the continental US with one 20-megaton bomb
emitted at 200 miles above Kansas. 