[ RadSafe ] Concerns Could Reduce Radiation Sensor Deployment

[Dukelow, James S Jr]

Daren Perrero pointed us to a New York Times op-ed by Jeffery Goldberg:
 
>The article link is below, but you may need to be registered at the 
>site to reach it. 
>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/opinion/09goldberg.html

And Steven Dapra wrote:
-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On
Behalf Of Steven Dapra
Sent: Tuesday, September 09, 2008 6:20 PM
To: Perrero, Daren
Cc: radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: RE: [ RadSafe ] Concerns Could Reduce Radiation Sensor
Deployment

   <snip>

         Turning to his NY Times column, he bemoans the possibility of
an atomic bomb being detonated in the US, and writes, "Many
proliferation experts I have spoken to judge the chance of such a
detonation to be as high as 50 percent in the next 10 years."  Clever,
huh?  "Many" 
experts???  Which ones?  Got any names?  What are their qualifications?

         Goldberg ends his column by speaking of Obama and McCain, and
saying, "We can hope against hope that in the next two months, these two
men will discuss, in a deliberative and encompassing way, the best ways
to protect America from what some nonproliferation experts believe is a
nearly inevitable attack. We should, in fact, demand that this
conversation take place, because nothing else matters."  He's obsessed
with the idea that a nuke is going to be set off in the US of A.  For my
money, his column serves no constructive purpose and shows no deep
thinking.

   <snip>

Jim Dukelow responds:

While I have some quibbles with Goldberg's somewhat over the top
language, his assertion about "Many proliferation experts" appears to be
on sound ground.  Those interested in following these threads can look
at a Washington Times op-ed by Graham Allison, a Belfer Center
(Harvard's Kennedy School of Government) "proliferation expert".  It can
be found at

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18230/nuclear_attack_a_w
orstcase_reality.html

Allison cites Richard Garwin, Matthew Bunn, William J. Perry, Warren
Buffet, and Homeland Security Undersecretary Charles Allen.

A relevant white paper by Bunn, with a lot more detail and numerous
literature citations, The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism -- And Next Steps to
Reduce the Danger, can be found at 

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/bunn-nuclear-terror-risk-08.pd
f

It is also worth looking at the writings of Jessica Stern, also at
Belfer Center.

Richard Clarke and Stephen Flynn also have some interesting writing on
the subject.

Best regards.

Jim Dukelow
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Richland, WA
jsdukelow at yahoo.com

These comments are mine and have not been reviewed and/or approved by my
management or by the U.S. Department of Energy.