[ RadSafe ] Global Warming Physics

[Sam Iverstine]

Hello All, 
 
The mass consensus appears to suffer from the LNT theory of climate change. Unfortunately, climate models use third order differential equations in which some people "extrapolate" conclusions. Extrapolation is correct only for linear models, I believe. 
 
A while back, I worked for a Principle Investigator in a department of Enviromental Physics. We used tritium reactors to measure trace gasses we released at different points in the atmosphere (I leak tested the H3 RXs).  I used to read her papers for "fun" on enviromental physics about how gasses move and affect the climate. A differential equation begins with guessing the answer. Then, as errors propogate, if a variable such as CO2 amount at a given point in the atmosphere is changed even a very small amout, the extrapolation is propogated to any conclusion you wish. Assuming initial conditions are measured correctly, even for second order differential equations, as we know from radioactive decay chains, the answers can change by many orders of magnitude from small changes in initial conditions. Not just a few percent, but thousands of percent differences. 
 
Very interesting debate. On another radiation note, I thought planetary temperature was driven by water vapor and the albedo effect more than by CO2?:  
 
Change to the Earth's albedo is a powerful driver of climate. When the planet's albedo or reflectivity increases, more incoming sunlight is reflected back into space. This has a cooling effect on global temperatures. Conversely, a drop in albedo warms the planet. A change of just 1% to the Earth's albedo has a radiative effect of 3.4 Wm-2, comparable to the forcing from a doubling of CO2. 

Sam Iverstine, MS, CHP
Board Certified and Licensed Consultant Physicist
Miami, FL