[ RadSafe ] Global warming, Earth wobbles, etc.

[JPreisig at aol.com]

Dear Radsafe:

     This is from:  jpreisig at aol.com.


      Hey All,

           Hope you all are very well.  I e-mailed radsafe a while ago now 
about
      global warming and Earth wobbles <Earth orientation in space>.  This 
      information should be in the radsafe archives.

            The Earth has two primary wobbles --- an annual wobble and a 
      wobble <the Chandler wobble> of 433 day period.  Two such wobbles
      in relatively close frequency proximity are capable of producing
      sum and difference frequencies <see your undergrad mechanics book>,
      commonly referred to as the phenomena associated with Beats.
      The Earth wobble amplitude as a function of time has large peaks
      at times like 1910, 1954 and 1998.  The peaks are relatively broad, so
      one might suggest a peak width of 1998 +/- 10 years or so.  You can 
      see these peaks in actual Earth wobble <Very Long Baseline 
Interferometry>
      data, available from NASA Goddard Space Center and elsewhere.
      Lately we are approaching the edge of the peak <2008?> and entering
      a time where the Earth's geometric axis dips less steeply towards the 
      the Sun.  As the result of this winters and summers in the near future
      should be less cold and hot respectively.

           For more information about all this refer to the books by Munk 
and
      MacDonald and Lambeck <books 1 and 2>.  Beats etc. is not really
      explained much in these books????  The next wobble amplitude peak
      should occur in  2042 +/- 10 years roughly <i.e. more global warming?>
      <perhaps more fires in the western USA also????>.

         In 2020 or thereabouts, there may be some drought and or extreme
      snowfall conditions.  These things happened at the half-period times
      associated with the wobble <1888 --- great snowfall in NY City:
      1932 --- dustbowl in central USA>.  Clearly global warming has many
      other contributing factors.  One wonders if the Nobel peace prize
      awarded to Gore and associates will be of any importance.

           The number of named storms off the USA east coast seems a bit
      down right now <6???> compared with the usual 10 to 15, but the
      hurricane season is still in progress.  For the other??? radsafe 
geologist,
      Kanamori wrote a paper discussing Earthquake data and times of 
      Earth wobble amplitude peaks.  It is in the literature.

            I'd like to get all this down on paper in a real technical 
paper, but
      I don't seem to be doing things like that right now.  This e-mail is 
what
      I can produce right now.

           Clearly, if global warming is less important than previously 
thought,
      then this will have some impact on USA etc. power utilities.  Still, I
      think it is still important to replace some of our aging coal plants 
with
      nuclear power plants.  We'll see what really happens.


           Hope you all have a good week at work.

            Regards,     Joseph R. <Joe> Preisig,   Ph.D.