[ RadSafe ] Global warming, Earth wobbles, etc.
Dan W McCarn
hotgreenchile at gmail.com
Tue Sep 15 15:55:25 CDT 2009
"For the other??? radsafe geologist"
I guess that's me!!!
Decades(!) ago in 1979, I did a flood frequency and magnitude study of the
Purgatoire River, SE Colorado, and discovered that there was a near perfect
11 year correlation of thunderstorm mediated flow events with the solar
minimum for 4 solar cycles. This included two major flood events at two of
the solar minimums (and no floods in between). I was puzzled about this
until recently. It seems that at solar minimum, the magnetosphere allows
more cosmic radiation through, which causes increased cloud formation... and
Dan W McCarn, The "Other" Geologist
7 Likely Place
Santa Fe, NM 87508-5938
+33.(0).6.47.86.05.25 (Mobile - France)
+33.(0).9.70.44.04.03 (Skype - France)
+1-505-240-6872 (Skype - New Mexico)
HotGreenChile at gmail.com (Private email)
From: radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces at radlab.nl] On Behalf
Of JPreisig at aol.com
Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 2009 14:16
To: radsafe at radlab.nl
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Global warming, Earth wobbles, etc.
This is from: jpreisig at aol.com.
Hope you all are very well. I e-mailed radsafe a while ago now
global warming and Earth wobbles <Earth orientation in space>. This
information should be in the radsafe archives.
The Earth has two primary wobbles --- an annual wobble and a
wobble <the Chandler wobble> of 433 day period. Two such wobbles
in relatively close frequency proximity are capable of producing
sum and difference frequencies <see your undergrad mechanics book>,
commonly referred to as the phenomena associated with Beats.
The Earth wobble amplitude as a function of time has large peaks
at times like 1910, 1954 and 1998. The peaks are relatively broad, so
one might suggest a peak width of 1998 +/- 10 years or so. You can
see these peaks in actual Earth wobble <Very Long Baseline
data, available from NASA Goddard Space Center and elsewhere.
Lately we are approaching the edge of the peak <2008?> and entering
a time where the Earth's geometric axis dips less steeply towards the
the Sun. As the result of this winters and summers in the near future
should be less cold and hot respectively.
For more information about all this refer to the books by Munk
MacDonald and Lambeck <books 1 and 2>. Beats etc. is not really
explained much in these books???? The next wobble amplitude peak
should occur in 2042 +/- 10 years roughly <i.e. more global warming?>
<perhaps more fires in the western USA also????>.
In 2020 or thereabouts, there may be some drought and or extreme
snowfall conditions. These things happened at the half-period times
associated with the wobble <1888 --- great snowfall in NY City:
1932 --- dustbowl in central USA>. Clearly global warming has many
other contributing factors. One wonders if the Nobel peace prize
awarded to Gore and associates will be of any importance.
The number of named storms off the USA east coast seems a bit
down right now <6???> compared with the usual 10 to 15, but the
hurricane season is still in progress. For the other??? radsafe
Kanamori wrote a paper discussing Earthquake data and times of
Earth wobble amplitude peaks. It is in the literature.
I'd like to get all this down on paper in a real technical
I don't seem to be doing things like that right now. This e-mail is
I can produce right now.
Clearly, if global warming is less important than previously
then this will have some impact on USA etc. power utilities. Still, I
think it is still important to replace some of our aging coal plants
nuclear power plants. We'll see what really happens.
Hope you all have a good week at work.
Regards, Joseph R. <Joe> Preisig, Ph.D.
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