[ RadSafe ] "Is Nuclear Energy the Solution ?"

Stewart Farber radproject at sbcglobal.net
Sat Apr 17 18:39:21 CDT 2010

For anyone interested in the clearly stated agenda of one of the authors of the editorial against nuclear energy development, they should refer 
to a 2002 book of essays [ "Our Precarious Earth and Its Biosphere" ] 
written by  Milton H. Saier, Jr. of UCSD. --   

This book of essays can be found online at:

Saier's clearly written main desire is to reduce world population 
dramatically, and despite his stated concern about the risk to humanity 
of the greenhouse effect, he vehemently opposes nuclear energy. He 
maintains in his essays that people should not be allowed to reproduce unless approved by some unnamed authority who knows better than they. 

His published book is quite informative in that it makes clear that he 
begins any consideration of nuclear technologies with the mindset that 
some elite group needs to coordinate an aggressive population reduction program. Nuclear energy is opposed not 
because of any one or more supposed problems, but because it offers the 
world a way to help meet the energy demands of the earth's inhabitants while other non-electric power issues are dealt with, something that does meet his background agenda. 

So he, and other 
anti-nuclear activist opponents, are not honestly concerned with uranium fuel cost, 
or nuclear waste disposal, or accidents, but are motivated by a fear 
that nuclear electric generation will help to meet present and near 
future societal needs. Promoting, and exaggerating, the deficiencies of 
nuclear technologies is merely a tactic to achieve a background agenda. 
People like Dr. Saier would prefer shortages and future cataclysm 
because ultimately it would help to advance their objectives.

Refer to:

Our Precarious Earth and Its Biosphere
(5th Edition) -A 
set of Essays Professing Population Reduction for Earth Preservation -2002
By Milton H. Saier, Jr.

Milton H. Saier, Jr. 
Division of 
Biological Sciences 
University of California at San Diego 
Jolla, CA 92093-0116, USA 
Phone: 858-534-4084 
Fax: 858-534-7108 
E-mail: msaier at ucsd.edu 

Website: http://www-biology.ucsd.edu/~msaier/earthessays/  
PREP website: http://acs.ucsd.edu/~prep  

Forward [from above link ]:
"Several years
ago, I was shocked out of my complacency when I learned that we humans 
depleted the oceans of nearly 99% of the edible fish life and that 
of the oceanic coral reefs are dead or dying.  Later I learned that we 
are destroying
the remaining forests at a rate of 2.5% per annum.  We are also causing 
extinction of an estimated 50,000 biological species every year.  
suggest that in a mere 25 years, 50% of the human population will be 
adequate drinking water, and that 25 years later, 50% of all humans will be
starving.  Even more important, I became convinced that global warming 
cause the virtual extinction of the human race within a mere 200-300 
unless drastic preventative measures are taken. 
       I believe these
issues are far more important than terrorism, war, pestilence, the 
economy, our
jobs, or individual human life, yours or mine.  Careful consideration 
has led
to the conviction that in only one way can we avoid the pending 
disaster: by effecting
a drastic reduction in the human population.  Other measures may delay 
demise, but only this one solution will allow the human race to live
indefinitely in harmony with nature without destroying the beautiful 
Earth we
have come to inherit.  This unpopular view, never mentioned by our 
is virtually self evident when the data currently available are 
       The essays
presented here address these issues.  They are written for the general 
and can be understood by anyone.  They may be read individually with 
benefit.  Each one presents novel but overlapping facts and views.  
read, ponder, evaluate, and act upon them as you see fit, and then pass 
them on
to a friend.  I hope you find them revealing, edifying, and even 
Stewart Farber, MSPH
Farber Medical 
Solutions, LLC
Bridgeport, CT 06604

[203] 441-8433 [o]
website: http://www.farber-medical.com


From: Dan W McCarn <hotgreenchile at gmail.com>
To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
Cc: Peter Bossew <Peter.Bossew at reflex.at>
Sent: Sat, April 17, 2010 5:01:34 PM
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] "Is Nuclear Energy the Solution ?"

Lieber Peter:

For an editorial spewing so many "facts", there is not one single reference
to back them.  Hmmmm.  It's almost an embarrassment.

As far as the "front-end" of the nuclear fuel cycle, uranium has yet to
become a stable and predictable commodity.  From 2003-present, there was a
great deal of speculation concerning the price of uranium giving a range of
$40-$145 / lb U3O8.  However, there are two chief components driving price:
1) Availability of inventory; 2) Cost of fresh production. A third minor
component is the down-blending of HEU to LEU and MOX fuel production, but
this is only about 10% of supply and will probably not last that long.  As
long as there is low-cost, excess inventory, new sources of uranium will be
brought on-line in fits and starts depending on the contract-deliverable
price, although the uranium industry is ramping-up for new production!

For over two decades, the overabundance of inventory, mainly held by
governments, controlled price, providing about 50% of the reactor-related
demand. The uncertainty of what is left as available inventory has created
an uncertainty for the mining companies of WHEN fresh production will be
driven by the normal supply-demand economics.  

My guess has always been wrong, but I believe that the excess inventory
should be exhausted by 2015-2020 but the uncertainty fed by wildly differing
opinions and lack of government forthrightness has confused the situation
(at least for me).  But then my original prediction (McCarn, D. and
Mueller-Kahle, E. (1986): Long-Term Uranium Supply-Demand Analysis,
IAEA-TECDOC-395, 91 p., Vienna) was about the year 2000. Note that my
estimate of inventory was a pure "guess" in the above paper, although a
fairly reasonable guess at the time.  Also note that the estimate did not
include Former Soviet Union (FSU) production since the FSU at the time was
not participating in IAEA/NEA Redbook discussions or data.

I believe that a stable price of uranium for the foreseeable future will be
about $75 / lb U3O8 based on what I consider to be the overall cost of
production for a number of planned or newly-started mining facilities.
However, since the "front-end" economics are not that important in the
overall costs of nuclear, the inflationary increases for power from nuclear
will be minimal compared to fossil fuels in which about 1/2 of the
annualized costs are for fuel.

One additional item: assuming a "once-through" fuel cycle, there is enough
uranium in "discovered" conventional deposits to last for probably 50-75
years at which time additional exploration will undoubtedly bring more
"Speculative" and "Estimated Additional" (EAR) resources into the
"discovered" or "Reasonably Assured" (RAR) category.

My opinion only.


Dan ii

Dan W McCarn, Geologist
2867 A Fuego Sagrado
Santa Fe, NM 87505
+1-505-310-3922 (Mobile – New Mexico)
HotGreenChile at gmail.com (Private email)

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Peter Bossew
Sent: Saturday, April 17, 2010 10:28
To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
Subject: [ RadSafe ] "Is Nuclear Energy the Solution ?"

Editorial, Water Air Soil Pollution, 208, 1-4, 2010
M. Saier and J. Trevors: Is Nuclear Energy the Solution ?

www.springerlink.com/content/yr0548j054320377/      (open access)

Comments ?

In particular I would be interested in (qualified !) comments on the
economic arguments.

Peter Bossew

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