[ RadSafe ] SOME IDEAS ON COMMUNICATING RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC

[Doug Huffman]

A la Don Rumsfeld; there are known knowns, and known unknowns, but there 
are also unknown unknows.

Low probabilities are not well apprehended.

On 12/6/2010 14:43, Dan W McCarn wrote:
> Assessment of the perception of risk is a complicated study. As a geologist,
> I became aware of a body of psychological literature on subjective
> probability because I was making geological decisions based on bounded
> intelligence.  The mind's ability to process low-probability events is, at
> best, tenuous.
>
> Take a look at the following:
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_perception
>
> Dan ii
>
> --
> Dan W McCarn, Geologist
> 108 Sherwood Blvd
> Los Alamos, NM 87544-3425
> +1-505-672-2014 (Home - New Mexico)
> +1-505-670-8123 (Mobile - New Mexico)
> HotGreenChile at gmail.com (Private email) HotGreenChile at gmail dot com
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Cary Renquist
> Sent: Monday, December 06, 2010 12:26
> To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) MailingList
> Subject: [ RadSafe ] SOME IDEAS ON COMMUNICATING RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC
>
>
> Just skimmed it, but appears to have some good ideas for communicating
> relative risk...
>
> ...
> Natural frequencies instead of probabilities
>
> Consider the colorectal cancer example given previously. Only 1 in 24
> doctors tested could give the correct answer. The following,
> mathematically-equivalent, representation of the problem was given to
> doctors:
>
>      Out of every 10,000 people, 30 have colorectal cancer. Of these 30,
> 15 will have a positive haemoccult test. Out of the remaining 9,970
> people without colorectal cancer, 300 will still test positive. How many
> of those who test positive actually have colorectal cancer?
>
> Without any training whatsoever, 16 out 24 physicians obtained the
> correct answer to this version. That is quite a jump from 1 in 24.
> ....
>
> SOME IDEAS ON COMMUNICATING RISK TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC | Decision
> Science News
>    http://j.mp/g394KH
>
>
>
>
> Cary
>
> ---
> Cary Renquist
> crenquist at isotopeproducts.com or cary.renquist at ezag.com
>
>
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