[ RadSafe ] Nuclear Power as Part of Our Energy Surety & Economic Security Future (Part 1)

[Miller, Mark L]

<snip> " Historically in this country, cost was no object."   .......

I need to give some thought on how to better express what I was thinking about when I wrote this.  It had to do with how we squandered trillions of $ over the last 30 years "tolerating" wrong-headed thinkers who seemed to think that decisions we make DON'T have consequences, and who were always keen on spending "other people's money" (OPM).  This tolerance was possible because we were a very wealthy country and could afford such silliness.  Now, the chickens have come home to roost.  We no longer have the luxury of infinite time and money to correct the error we've made for ourselves, and the world.

<snip>  What you said: "Lead time to first production? 8-10-12 years, if the company is lucky!  The
deep underpinning on this is the stabilization of the price of uranium.
Every estimate I've made on the depth of inventory since my first paper on
this subject in 1984 (IAEA) has been wrong, and the governments are not
really open about this. "  Putting this in another box - sustainability requires that the price / cost
structures be favorable

I agree 100% -We must predictably and consistently provide incentives to individuals and businesses (rationally and long-term so that planning and investment decisions can be made) to diversify to ensure increasing momentum in the nuclear renaissance.


-----Original Message-----
From: Dan W McCarn [mailto:hotgreenchile at gmail.com]
Sent: Monday, March 15, 2010 1:31 PM
To: Miller, Mark L; radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
Subject: RE: [ RadSafe ] Nuclear Power as Part of Our Energy Surety & Economic Security Future (Part 1)

Dear Mark:

" Historically in this country, cost was no object."

I certainly take exception to you with this.  Looking at the Former Soviet
Union, cost appeared to be meaningless with regard to production of certain
materials / commodities. The cost in environment alone was staggering.  I
tried to estimate the production cost of uranium from their use of reagents,
drilling, etc. grades & thicknesses in the 70s... Staggering cost.

Keep in mind that the USA produces about 1% of the uranium it needs to fuel
reactors.  Having been involved in the licensing of uranium deposits in the
USA and production / cleanup elsewhere, sunk cost from licensing efforts,
while the "target" is constantly changing, is very high. Then, once you
reach your goal and have a license, the opposition gets the law changed...

Lead time to first production? 8-10-12 years, if the company is lucky!  The
deep underpinning on this is the stabilization of the price of uranium.
Every estimate I've made on the depth of inventory since my first paper on
this subject in 1984 (IAEA) has been wrong, and the governments are not
really open about this.

Putting this in another box - sustainability requires that the price / cost
structures be favorable.

See:



Dan ii

--
Dan W McCarn, Geologist
2867 A Fuego Sagrado
Santa Fe, NM 87505
+1-505-310-3922 (Mobile - New Mexico)
HotGreenChile at gmail.com (Private email)
-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Miller, Mark L
Sent: Monday, March 15, 2010 08:03
To: 'radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu'
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Nuclear Power as Part of Our Energy Surety & Economic
Security Future (Part 1)

With the current global warming issues and looming energy crisis, we must
objectively evaluate the facts regarding the world energy crisis and based
on the weight of the evidence, draw reasonable conclusions from them and
then strive to see that they are implemented on a national and even world
scale.  There is no question that there will be increasing potential for
regional and global conflict over access to conventional energy resources
which are essential to achieving a better standard of living.  However,
today, we are faced with the stark reality of finite fossil energy reserves,
the threat of global warming, overpopulation, economic turmoil and the
world's "have-nots" striving to attain the standard of life enjoyed by the
world's "haves".
The U.S. obtains 73% of the energy it consumes from CO2-producing sources.
97% of U.S. transportation uses oil (train, truck, car, agriculture) 70+% of
this oil is imported, most of it from countries of the world that are
politically unstable and don't like Westerners.  This is up from ~30% prior
to the 1973 oil embargo.  Since then every President has proclaimed that the
U.S. would reduce its dependence on foreign oil - to no apparent effect.
Are we missing something here?
By reliable, I mean that is it available 24/7/365

Regardless of where you live - large country or small, your future energy
supply must be:
* reliable,
* sustainable,
* environmentally friendly,
* affordable and,
* available.
By reliable, I mean that is it available 24/7/365.  Unfortunately
renewables, although essential to every country's energy portfolio, are not
capable of delivering on this essential characteristic which is needed for
baseload generation (have you ever tried to power a steel plant with solar
power?).  Sustainable means that it does not deplete finite resources.
Environmentally friendly can be a catch-all, but for now I'll assign this
bugbear to CO2 and global warming.  The meaning of affordable is obvious,
but may mean dramatically different things to people from different economic
strata.  Historically in this country, cost was no object.  Our per-capita
prosperity was off the charts (in global terms) and was completely taken for
granted (nolo contendere).  With the bursting of the United States' and the
world's economic bubble, capital cost matters!





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