[ RadSafe ] Dr Busby - 30%

[Ken Savitz]

I'd like to weigh in on the discussion with Sandy and Dr Busby -

population of Japan        - 128,000,000 (2009 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan )
population of Fukushima -   2,030,000 (2010 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Prefecture )
 
death rate (all causes) - ~10 per 1000 (2006 - http://apps.who.int/whosis/database/mort/table1_process.cfm )
infant mortality (all)        - ~2.8 per 1000 (2010 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan#Infant_mortality_rate )
 
(if someone can find data for the same year, that might be better)
 
Dr Busby,
 
Would you please put a number on your prediction of "greater than 30%".  Does that mean, of the 2 million
in the Fukushima prefecture, in a 'normal' year, we would expect ~20300 deaths; you expect to see 26000 or 13%?
or, are you speaking only of an increase in infant mortality?  from all causes?
 
As of April, the tsunami had accounted for 1113 deaths and 4626 missing in Fukushima
(http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Deaths_confirmed_at_Fukushima_Daiichi_0304111.html).
 
Please be specific so that the readers do not distort the .
 
Ken Savitz