[ RadSafe ] Go Figure: How can you explain cancer clusters?

[Paul Rubin]

Why would you have non-scientist friends?

On May 13, 2011, at 5:23 PM, Jerry Cohen <jjc105 at yahoo.com> wrote:

> In this regard, an interesting experiment to try with your non-scientist friends 
> is the following:
> 1) pin a map of your state or country to the wall,
> 2) throw 2 darts randomly on to the map,
> 3) note the  city or town closest to where each dart landed
> 4) find the cancer rate of each community- inevitably one community will have a 
> higher rate than the      other
> 5) ask your non-scientist friends what they think might account for the 
> difference.
> I have tried this a few times and get responses suggesting different "pollution" 
> levels, types of industry , age of population, etc., but never have I received a 
> response suggesting that this is just a matter of random variation.
> 
> 
> 
> ________________________________
> From: "Brennan, Mike  (DOH)" <Mike.Brennan at DOH.WA.GOV>
> To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) MailingList 
> <radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu>
> Sent: Fri, May 13, 2011 1:44:22 PM
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Go Figure: How can you explain cancer clusters?
> 
> Or there can be a causal relationship, just not the one people think.
> 
> I am reminded of a story (it may be true, but as I've heard similar
> stories for different facilities, it might be illustrative of a concept)
> of a "study" by a group against a particular facility (a nuclear power
> plant in one of the versions, but any big industrial facility will do),
> showing that cancer deaths increased in the county the facility was
> located in, starting shortly after operations started.  What was not in
> the study was that, in part due to increased tax base, a county hospital
> was opened about the time that cancer deaths increased.  Previously,
> residence of that county who had cancer had gone to other hospitals in
> other counties, and often died there.  
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Fred Dawson
> GoogleMail
> Sent: Friday, May 13, 2011 1:06 AM
> To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
> Subject: [ RadSafe ] Go Figure: How can you explain cancer clusters?
> 
> From the BBC
> 
> "This is an experiment. No real cancers are involved. But that's the
> point.
> We're going to see if we can make a game of pure chance look like
> something
> real and meaningful. 
> 
> Why? Because this week an official report in the UK stated that
> radiation
> from nuclear power stations does not cause increased levels of childhood
> leukaemia. 
> 
> A conspiracy, allege critics. Statistical lies, say others. The problem
> is
> obvious, they argue. 
> 
> The Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment
> (COMARE),
> first investigated the question 25 years ago. It's still at it. 
> 
> And the reason, both for some people's scepticism and for COMARE's
> 25-year
> struggle to find a definitive answer, is the role of chance. 
> 
> Can we recreate the problem? Here goes." 
> 
> continues at
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-13374325
> 
> Fred Dawson
> New Malden
> England
> 
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> You are currently subscribed to the RadSafe mailing list
> 
> Before posting a message to RadSafe be sure to have read and understood
> the RadSafe rules. These can be found at:
> http://health.phys.iit.edu/radsaferules.html
> 
> For information on how to subscribe or unsubscribe and other settings
> visit: http://health.phys.iit.edu
> _______________________________________________
> You are currently subscribed to the RadSafe mailing list
> 
> Before posting a message to RadSafe be sure to have read and understood the 
> RadSafe rules. These can be found at: 
> http://health.phys.iit.edu/radsaferules.html
> 
> For information on how to subscribe or unsubscribe and other settings visit: 
> http://health.phys.iit.edu
> _______________________________________________
> You are currently subscribed to the RadSafe mailing list
> 
> Before posting a message to RadSafe be sure to have read and understood the RadSafe rules. These can be found at: http://health.phys.iit.edu/radsaferules.html
> 
> For information on how to subscribe or unsubscribe and other settings visit: http://health.phys.iit.edu