[ RadSafe ] New Fukushima-related paper
radbloom at comcast.net
radbloom at comcast.net
Wed Sep 7 09:15:05 CDT 2011
Hi Bobby,
Thanks for sharing your paper. I have a question about a statement you made:
"For example, if the
cell lethality probability per cell at risk (for a specific cell type) is
0.1 (i.e., 1 in 10 cells) at a given gamma dose, then the
corresponding probability for simultaneously killing 1 million of
these cells with the same dose is 0.1 , which is essentially
zero."
My sense tells me that if the probability of death per cell at risk is 0.1, this is based on someone's observation that 10% of the cells were killed at a given gamma dose. The (likely) number of cells killed (I'm not sure how "simultaneously" fits in - and I don't see that in the paper), then would be 0.1 multiplied by the number of cells irradiated. Perhaps the paper is missing the number of cells irradiated... I think what you calculated is the likelihood that for 1 million irradiated cells, the likelihood that they all would [simultaneously] die. For irradiation of 1 million cells, you would expect 100,000 cell deaths... As I read your words multiple times, I'm not sure that they are untrue, but they seem misleading.
"For example, if the
cell lethality probability per cell at risk (for a specific cell type) is
0.1 (i.e., 1 in 10 cells) at a given gamma dose, then the
corresponding probability for simultaneously killing 1 million of
these cells with the same dose is 0.1 , which is essentially
zero."
My sense tells me that if the probability of death per cell at risk is 0.1, this is based on someone's observation that 10% of the cells were killed at a given gamma dose. The (likely) number of cells killed (I'm not sure how "simultaneously" fits in - and I don't see that in the paper), then would be 0.1 multiplied by the number of cells irradiated. Perhaps the paper is missing the number of cells irradiated... I think what you calculated is the likelihood that for 1 million irradiated cells, the likelihood that they all would [simultaneously] die. For irradiation of 1 million cells, you would expect 100,000 cell deaths... As I read your words multiple times, I'm not sure that they are untrue, but they seem misleading.
Thanks for provoking my thoughts,
Cindy (Bloom)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bobby Scott" <BScott at lrri.org>
To: "The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) MailingList" <radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, September 6, 2011 5:05:04 PM
Subject: [ RadSafe ] New Fukushima-related paper
Hi All:
A link to my new paper titled "A guide to radiation hazard evaluation,
applied to Fukushima recovery workers" follows:
http://www.jpands.org/vol16no3/scott.pdf
The paper was just published in the Journal of American Physicians and
Surgeons (Vol. 16, #3, pages 71-76, 2011). I thought the paper may be of
interest to some of you.
Best wishes,
Bobby R. Scott, Ph.D.
Senior Scientist
Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute
2425 Ridgecrest Drive SE
Albuquerque, NM 87108 USA
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