[ RadSafe ] N. Korea Nuclear test

Wed Feb 13 21:42:08 CST 2013

Jane,
Maybe Sharon and other CD interests would like to chime in
and Kearny's book revived by Art.

Howard Long

On Feb 13, 2013, at 6:55 PM, "Victor Anderson" <victor.anderson at frontier.com> wrote:

> Jerry,
> 
> Thanks for your reply.  Quite seriously it caused me to laugh. Why?  Well
> because if anybody understands the horrors of nuclear warfare it would be
> the members of this list.  No doubt many of you much better than me.  From
> June 2006 to just before retirement I and one of my staff members devoted a
> lot of time and analysis to the subject.  To analyze this sort of stuff in
> detail requires a certain amount of cold blooded thinking.  Otherwise, you
> can't begin to rationally determine what is needed for a good response.  It
> still gets to you after awhile.  It did me.  In any case, if someone knows
> of nuclear response plans at the state and local level that are on the net,
> I would be interested.
> 
> Victor
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Jerry Cohen
> Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2013 6:02 PM
> To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) MailingList
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] N. Korea Nuclear test
> 
> Victor,
>    Thanks for informing us of the horrors of nuclear warfare. Without your 
> guidance, we might have thought it would cause  a minor inconvenience.
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Victor Anderson" <victor.anderson at frontier.com>
> To: "'The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) MailingList'" 
> <radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu>
> Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2013 5:20 PM
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] N. Korea Nuclear test
> 
> 
>> Good Afternoon,
>> 
>> Yes indeed, North Korea does pose a problem.  The government is run by
>> madmen who are likely as not to nuke someone.  The only thing that holds
>> them back (in my opinion) is the specter of US retaliation.  And yes,
>> whoever the president is, that person will be virtually forced to 
>> retaliate
>> with a nuclear strike.  The issue of any city being hit with a nuke weapon
>> is really nasty.  Those who want the messy details can download Effects of
>> Nuclear Weapons by Glasstone and Dolan.  If memory serves me correctly, it
>> is on the Princeton website.  For a ground burst of 10 kt, you can expect
>> lethal levels of fallout out to about 20 miles downwind depending on 
>> weather
>> conditions.  Essentially everybody within a one mile diameter of ground 
>> zero
>> is dead.  Forget about long term effects.  You will have bigger fish to 
>> fry.
>> Like providing care for tens of thousands of people with radiation 
>> syndrome.
>> Then there are the thermal injuries and shattered glass injuries and so 
>> on.
>> It gets worse.  For those of you with a morbid sense of curiosity go to 
>> LLNL
>> website and download the "HOTSPOT" health physics code.  One of the 
>> modules
>> allows you to model nuclear weapons effects for various yields, weather
>> conditions, etc.  The other issue is probable warhead size.  DOE after a
>> little study settled on 10 kilotons as the most probable yield for a
>> terrorist improvised nuclear weapon (IND).  All well and good.  Now we 
>> have
>> an outlaw nation building the damm things.  When you do the research (and 
>> I
>> have), the non-classified information indicates that for military purposes
>> current thinking is about 500 kt set off in an airburst with multiple
>> warheads for a large target (Think NYC or the Los Angeles metroplex).
>> Effects tend to go up as the cube root of the yield.  So, life gets much
>> more difficult.  The good news is that air bursts don't make as much 
>> fallout
>> as ground bursts.  A ground burst will generate ungodly amounts of highly
>> radioactive stuff.  Having just one US city nuked will use up all of the
>> health physics talent we can muster.  It will also strain our emergency
>> management system.  California now has one response plan for an nuke 
>> strike
>> at the public health department level.  Don't know the details as it was
>> completed after I left.  Los Angeles County has a response plan as does
>> Ventura County.  And that's about it. If your city, state, county does not
>> have a response plan, I strongly suggest that you write, call, whatever 
>> and
>> try and to get the wheels moving.  Saying the federal government has one 
>> is
>> not good enough.  Federal response time is three days.  With initial dose
>> rates post explosion in excess of 10 Gy/hr over many square kilometers, 
>> the
>> local and state organizations better have a plan.  Otherwise lots of 
>> people
>> are going to needlessly die.  There are so many issues that there is just
>> not enough room to go into them.  For example, fire departments and haz 
>> mat
>> teams need to understand to keep their amateur, untrained asses out of
>> ground zero.  They are not going to save anyone and will just commit 
>> suicide
>> with a long term messy death.  Setting up medical care on a mass basis is
>> another.  But enough.  We should have invaded North Korea instead of Iraq.
>> End of rant.
>> 
>> Victor Anderson
>> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
>> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of JPreisig at aol.com
>> Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2013 3:03 PM
>> To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
>> Subject: [ RadSafe ] N. Korea Nuclear test
>> 
>> Dear Radsafe,
>> 
>>    If the North Koreans are getting very proficient  in Uranium and/or
>> Plutonium enrichment, then it is time to start worrying about  their 
>> ability
>> 
>> to put a nuclear device on a cruise missile and/or a rocket  launched
>> from a submarine or destroyer or whatever.  This no longer becomes a  west
>> coast USA/ICBM
>> problem.  The east coast of the USA and/or gulf coast would also  become
>> potential targets to nuclear
>> attack (also a global problem).  Hope Team USA is on its toes.
>> 
>>   I also hope any cargo shipments from North Korea into  the USA are
>> receiving extra scrutiny.
>> 
>>   According to TV News reports, Mainland China is having  discussions
>> with North Korea about their
>> Nuclear testing.
>> 
>>   Anybody see any radiation readings on their detectors  from this below
>> ground nuclear test???
>> 
>>   Regards,  Joe Preisig
>> 
>> 
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