[ RadSafe ] What's Killing The Nuclear Industry?

William Lipton doctorbill34 at gmail.com
Wed May 15 14:07:05 CDT 2013


This is a lot more than a public relations issue.  You can't rationalize
Fukushima or Chernobyl.

Bill Lipton
It's not about dose, it's about trust.
On May 15, 2013 2:55 PM, "KARAM, PHILIP" <ANDREW.KARAM at nypd.org> wrote:

> Unfortunately, as science/engineering/technical folks we are trying to
> use intellectual tools that are comfortable to us - rationality and
> logic - while we are largely competing against arguments based on
> emotion and (in some cases) the rejection of the tools we hold dear. We
> can't use logical arguments to win an emotional argument.
>
> I would strongly recommend reading "The Political Brain" by Drew Westen
> for some insights into this sort of thing. Westen is a neuroscientist
> who examines how our brains work and why it is that logical arguments
> almost always lose against emotional ones. He points out that, to a
> person wedded to logic and rationality, it seems like cheating to use
> emotional arguments. On the other hand, if we stick entirely to what
> seems fair to us (letting an idea triumph by sheer force of
> rationality), we're bound to lose almost every time. Dick Toohey spoke
> about this book during his President-Elect tour and persuaded me to buy
> the book - it's a real eye-opener.
>
> The bottom line - it doesn't matter how correct we are or how
> beautifully we have assembled our side of the debate unless we can get
> the attention of those we are trying to convince.
>
> Andy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
> [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Clayton J
> Bradt
> Sent: Wednesday, May 15, 2013 1:54 PM
> To: pottert at erols.com; radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] What's Killing The Nuclear Industry?
>
>
>
> The economic arguments in Thomas Potter's post are compelling, and
> probably
> correct(what do I know about economics?). However, the nuclear industry
> is
> subject to federal regulation to a far greater degree than the fossil
> fuel
> extraction sector. But even if all the economic signals are favorable
> for
> new plants to be built, a license is still required and the potential
> for
> political forces to intervene in that process is very real. Unless the
> current trust deficit is mitigated somehow, it will be nigh on
> impossible
> to garner public support for licensing new plants. That being the case,
> new
> plants will only come on line if the federal government is prepared to
> ignore the will of the majority of citizens. Fortunately for the nuclear
> power industry, present indications are that the government does not
> regard
> the thwarting of the people's will as much of an obstacle.
>
> Clayton Bradt
> Principal Radiophysicist
> NYS Dept. of Health
>
> *******Original Message*******************************
> Date: Tue, 14 May 2013 23:28:16 -0400 (EDT)
> From: THOMAS POTTER <pottert at erols.com>
> Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] What's Killing The Nuclear Industry?
> To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
> Message-ID:
>
> <3854357.48409884.1368588496614.JavaMail.root at md03.rcn.cmh.synacor.com>
>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8
>
>
> I am also a supporter of nuclear power and am mostly retired after a
> long
> health physics career. I share Bill Lipton's frustrations about many of
> the
> posts on RADSAFE. However, I do not agree with Bill's sense that the
> only
> ( or even the most important) question the public cares about is, "Can
> the
> nuclear industry be trusted to manage the technology?" ?
>
> The collapse of the rapid expansion phase of the nuclear power industry
> development predated both Chernobyl and TMI and had everything to do
> with
> economic fallout from the Arab oil embargo and nothing to do with loss
> of
> trust. Resulting reduced power demand, high inflation, and high interest
> rates?drove new ?nuclear power out of the market.
>
> Uncertainty about need for power was also important in this collapse. A
> significant part of? nuclear's economic problem, shared with renewables,
> is
> that a large fraction of the ultimate cost of its production of
> electrical
> power comes up front when the plant is built. A significant part of
> fossil
> fuel plants' ultimate cost of production is deferred as fuel costs,
> which
> can be avoided later in the event of investment misjudgment.
>
> Fukushima is not the most imp ortant recent development ?influencing the
> future of nuclear power.?Cheap natural gas is. Cheap n atural gas?is
> rapidly replacing even coal for electric power production, while
> simultaneously reducing carbon emissions.? In the continuing absence of
> a
> substantial price for carbon emission, it is virtually certain to be the
> option of choice over new nuclear or renewables for electric power
> production.
>
> Fukushima was certainly a substantial blow to public trust. We may see
> how
> important public trust? is to nuclear power in the near term by watching
> what happens to currently operating plants. Sweden is not even
> pretending a
> new phase-out, probably chastened ?after its earlier phase-out resulted
> in
> the closure of only a single unit. Germany is planning a phase-out by
> 2022,
> but only three units are scheduled for closure prior to 2021. Japan is
> already considering reopening at least some currently shut down plants.?
> Of
> course all of these nations are looking for cheap gas .
>
> The focus on trust is misplaced. If it was all about trust,?how does BP
> survive ? ? It has little to do with? trust. It's all about need.
>
> Thomas E. Potter?
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