[ RadSafe ] What's Killing The Nuclear Industry?
JPreisig at aol.com
JPreisig at aol.com
Wed May 15 16:01:01 CDT 2013
Radsafe,
The fun part about US Natural Gas, Oil, Coal, Methane, etc. is that
discoveries of new hydrocarbon energy reserves are occuring all over the
USA. Discoveries are occuring in the Dakotas, Wyoming,Kansas, Pennsylvania,
West Virginia, Ohio, Texas, Oklahoma and many other places. People owning
land in these places are becoming well-to-do by virtue of them owning their
property. Oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico has gone from one mile
depths to 5 mile depths. The USA may become hydrocarbon self-sufficient soon.
From what I see the UAE is building a new Nuclear plant also.
Hopefully, the USA will eventually want to at least replace the
current generation of nuclear reactors with new ones. Why can't the US
Government invest in a small fast neutron reactor, at least????
Regards, Joe Preisig
In a message dated 5/15/2013 4:45:49 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
joey-michael at uiowa.edu writes:
I would go further and say that natural gas is killing other methods of
power generation as well. Too bad, because it seemed like we were ready for
a nuclear power resurgence. Of course it could be argued that the
stringent regulation of the nuclear industry drives the cost well beyond were it
should be, then that comes back to risk perception.
-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at agni.phys.iit.edu
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at agni.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Marvin Resnikoff
Sent: Wednesday, May 15, 2013 2:14 PM
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] What's Killing The Nuclear Industry?
What's killing the nuclear industry is not the persuasiveness of arguments
pro and anti. The killer is natural gas and the unfavorable economics of
nuclear-generated electricity. Several smaller reactors have closed and
more are expected to follow shortly, such as Vermont Yankee.
________________________________
From: "KARAM, PHILIP" <ANDREW.KARAM at nypd.org>
To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu; pottert at erols.com
Sent: Wednesday, May 15, 2013 2:54 PM
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] What's Killing The Nuclear Industry?
Unfortunately, as science/engineering/technical folks we are trying to
use intellectual tools that are comfortable to us - rationality and
logic - while we are largely competing against arguments based on
emotion and (in some cases) the rejection of the tools we hold dear. We
can't use logical arguments to win an emotional argument.
I would strongly recommend reading "The Political Brain" by Drew Westen
for some insights into this sort of thing. Westen is a neuroscientist
who examines how our brains work and why it is that logical arguments
almost always lose against emotional ones. He points out that, to a
person wedded to logic and rationality, it seems like cheating to use
emotional arguments. On the other hand, if we stick entirely to what
seems fair to us (letting an idea triumph by sheer force of
rationality), we're bound to lose almost every time. Dick Toohey spoke
about this book during his President-Elect tour and persuaded me to buy
the book - it's a real eye-opener.
The bottom line - it doesn't matter how correct we are or how
beautifully we have assembled our side of the debate unless we can get
the attention of those we are trying to convince.
Andy
-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu
[mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Clayton J
Bradt
Sent: Wednesday, May 15, 2013 1:54 PM
To: pottert at erols.com; radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] What's Killing The Nuclear Industry?
The economic arguments in Thomas Potter's post are compelling, and
probably
correct(what do I know about economics?). However, the nuclear industry
is
subject to federal regulation to a far greater degree than the fossil
fuel
extraction sector. But even if all the economic signals are favorable
for
new plants to be built, a license is still required and the potential
for
political forces to intervene in that process is very real. Unless the
current trust deficit is mitigated somehow, it will be nigh on
impossible
to garner public support for licensing new plants. That being the case,
new
plants will only come on line if the federal government is prepared to
ignore the will of the majority of citizens. Fortunately for the nuclear
power industry, present indications are that the government does not
regard
the thwarting of the people's will as much of an obstacle.
Clayton Bradt
Principal Radiophysicist
NYS Dept. of Health
*******Original Message*******************************
Date: Tue, 14 May 2013 23:28:16 -0400 (EDT)
From: THOMAS POTTER <pottert at erols.com>
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] What's Killing The Nuclear Industry?
To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
Message-ID:
<3854357.48409884.1368588496614.JavaMail.root at md03.rcn.cmh.synacor.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8
I am also a supporter of nuclear power and am mostly retired after a
long
health physics career. I share Bill Lipton's frustrations about many of
the
posts on RADSAFE. However, I do not agree with Bill's sense that the
only
( or even the most important) question the public cares about is, "Can
the
nuclear industry be trusted to manage the technology?" ?
The collapse of the rapid expansion phase of the nuclear power industry
development predated both Chernobyl and TMI and had everything to do
with
economic fallout from the Arab oil embargo and nothing to do with loss
of
trust. Resulting reduced power demand, high inflation, and high interest
rates?drove new ?nuclear power out of the market.
Uncertainty about need for power was also important in this collapse. A
significant part of? nuclear's economic problem, shared with renewables,
is
that a large fraction of the ultimate cost of its production of
electrical
power comes up front when the plant is built. A significant part of
fossil
fuel plants' ultimate cost of production is deferred as fuel costs,
which
can be avoided later in the event of investment misjudgment.
Fukushima is not the most imp ortant recent development ?influencing the
future of nuclear power.?Cheap natural gas is. Cheap n atural gas?is
rapidly replacing even coal for electric power production, while
simultaneously reducing carbon emissions.? In the continuing absence of
a
substantial price for carbon emission, it is virtually certain to be the
option of choice over new nuclear or renewables for electric power
production.
Fukushima was certainly a substantial blow to public trust. We may see
how
important public trust? is to nuclear power in the near term by watching
what happens to currently operating plants. Sweden is not even
pretending a
new phase-out, probably chastened ?after its earlier phase-out resulted
in
the closure of only a single unit. Germany is planning a phase-out by
2022,
but only three units are scheduled for closure prior to 2021. Japan is
already considering reopening at least some currently shut down plants.?
Of
course all of these nations are looking for cheap gas .
The focus on trust is misplaced. If it was all about trust,?how does BP
survive ? ? It has little to do with? trust. It's all about need.
Thomas E. Potter?
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