[ RadSafe ] Auer on Global Warming

Mon Jan 27 09:31:46 CST 2014

Otto - your posting made me curious so I did a little on-line searching and found a paper that might be of interest. Unfortunately you have to pay to download the whole thing, but here's the abstract and citation information. Note that this was published in a peer-reviewed journal.


Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts
Energy & Environment
Volume 18, Number 7 - 8 / December 2007
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is "no". To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC's WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts' predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Otto G. Raabe
Sent: Sunday, January 26, 2014 8:44 PM
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Auer on Global Warming

August H. "Augie" Auer Jr (10 June 1940 - 10 June 
2007) was distinguished scientist and
Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Wyoming for 22 years.
After retirement became the Chief Meteorologist 
for the Meteorological t Service of New Zealand.

As a boy growing up in St. Louis, Missouri, Auer 
was reportedly fascinated by weather.
He studied meteorology at Colorado State 
University before becoming a Professor at the University of Wyoming.
A land use typing method to classify land as 
urban or rural is used by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

After retirement, Auer moved to New Zealand and 
became the Chief Meteorologist for the
Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited from 1990 to 1998.
He also presented the weather forecast on TV News for several years,
often preferring to use colloquialisms instead of technical jargon.
Auer was frequently quoted in the New Zealand 
press regarding weather and climate issues.

In a May 2007 interview with The Timaru Herald 
newspaper, Auer stated that a combination
of misinterpreted and misguided science, media hype, and political spin
had created the current global warming hysteria 
and it was time to put a stop to it stating,
"It is time to attack the myth of global warming."

According to Auer: " Water vapor is responsible 
for 95 per cent of the greenhouse effect,
an effect which is vital to keep the world warm.
if we didn't have the greenhouse effect the 
planet would be at minus 18 degrees Centigrade
but because we do have the greenhouse effect it 
is plus 15 degrees Centigrade, all the time.
The other greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, 
methane, nitrogen dioxide, and various others including CFCs,
contributed only five per cent of the effect, 
carbon dioxide being by far the greatest contributor at 3.6 per cent.
However, carbon dioxide from man's activities is 
only 3.2 per cent of that 3.6 per cent,
so it is only 0.12 per cent of the greenhouse gases in total.
Human related methane, nitrogen dioxide, and 
CFC's etc. make similarly minuscule contributions
to the effect: 0.06, 0.047, and 0.046 per cent, respectively.
It would be like trying to increase the 
temperature of bath tub full of water using one drop from an eye dropper."

Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
Center for Health & the Environment
University of California
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
E-Mail: ograabe at ucdavis.edu
Phone: (530) 752-7754   FAX: (530) 758-6140
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