[ RadSafe ] Nuclear Weapons

Brennan, Mike (DOH) Mike.Brennan at DOH.WA.GOV
Mon Mar 23 11:53:49 CDT 2015

I do not know if Israel has nuclear weapons, though if they do I'd be surprised if they are U-235 based.  I would expect them to be plutonium based, with the Pu obtained from, shall we say, "off shore providers".  If they have them, I would expect them to be carried on air-launched missiles, as that gets the best range for complexity (think of the aircraft as a very versatile first stage).  I would be very surprised if they have submarine launched nuclear weapons because (speaking as someone who was in that particular biz) submarine launched nuclear weapons are hard to do and useful only in very specialized circumstances, none of which I believe apply to Israel.  

The Cold War worked because, while neither side liked each other very much, both sides were controlled by rational players (not that there weren't complete nutters well up in both D. C. and the Kremlin).  It is hard to tell how rational the players in the Middle East are, as playing to the extremes seems to be the winning strategy.  I am far from convinces that a preemptive strike doesn't end in "the World in Flames" with even greater inevitability than "Wait and See".  It would have sucked if the US had brought out the nukes over the Cuban Missile Crisis, because even "winning" then wouldn't have been nearly as good as what waiting got the world. 

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of JPreisig at aol.com
Sent: Sunday, March 22, 2015 11:14 AM
To: radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Nuclear Weapons

     CNN News is reporting today that Israel has 200  nuclear devices.  
Apparently they have rocket launch capability and also  some submarine launch capability.  Guess their centrifuges have been  working steadily in time.  
Guess these devices could level much of Iran, if  used.
     Once Iran has built 8 to 20 nuclear devices,  things will get interesting.  Apparently they have some rocket launch  capability already.  Israel is a small nation and 8-20 devices would finish  off most of Israel's major cities.  I expect Iran has some centrifuge  facilities underground that the USA or IAEA don't know about.
     I expect Israel will eventually act to take out  some of Iran's centrifuge facilities.  Soon???  It really doesn't make  sense to wait....
     Joe Preisig
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