[ RadSafe ] LNT - wrong null hypothesis?

[KARAM, PHILIP]

The concept of ALARA will remain valid (in my opinion) regardless of the model used to describe low-dose effects. If (for example) there's a threshold then it's not reasonable to reduce dose less than the threshold. So we will still keep dose as low as reasonably achievable - keeping in mind what's reasonable, given our understanding of the effects.

Andy


-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Miller, Mark L
Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 2015 3:18 PM
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
Subject: [ RadSafe ] LNT - wrong null hypothesis?

The problem with non-scientifically based LNT is that was based on a premise that used the WRONG null hypothesis.  It should have been:  "There is no effect below ~ 10 rad/rem."  Instead, we have been chasing our elusive tails for 60 years trying to quantify the effect below 10 rad (which doesn't seem to exist!).  Once that paradigm has been successfully shifted, LNT and ALARA will be replaced by good science.

-----Original Message-----
From: Dixon, John E. (CDC/ONDIEH/NCEH) [mailto:gyf7 at cdc.gov] 
Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 2015 6:49 AM
To: 'The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List'
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Fwd: LNT

I agree with Andy here. Estimations of biological effects from low dose/dose rate radiation (especially below natural background) are problematic and will never be able to be shown using epidemiological data. It's kind of like imagining a swimmer in a pool of water up to his/her chest. The pool represents natural background radiation. Now, it starts to rain on the swimmer. How much "wetter" is the swimmer now?

Regards,
John Dixon

-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of KARAM, PHILIP
Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2015 9:42 AM
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List <radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu>
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] Fwd: LNT

I don't know that a linear response has been demonstrated at doses of less than 0.1 Sv (10 rem), let alone in the range mentioned. I believe this is why the HPS recommends against making numerical estimates of risk at doses any lower than this level. I'd have to check ICRP and UNSCEAR to see what they say - but my recollection is that all of these organizations acknowledge that, at the low end of the scale, the data do not preclude non-linear interpretations or the possibility of a threshold.

Andy


-----Original Message-----
From: radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu [mailto:radsafe-bounces at health.phys.iit.edu] On Behalf Of Chris Alston
Sent: Wednesday, August 26, 2015 11:12 PM
To: The International Radiation Protection (Health Physics) Mailing List
Subject: [ RadSafe ] Fwd: LNT

Kjell

Are you sure that you want to ask about doses "<0.2 *mSv*" (emphasis mine)?  That would be < 20 mrem.

Cheers
cja
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Johansen, Kjell <Kjell.Johansen at nexteraenergy.com>
Date: Tue, Aug 25, 2015 at 3:41 PM
Subject: Re: [ RadSafe ] LNT
To: "(radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu)" <radsafe at health.phys.iit.edu>

Does anyone know whether LNT has been demonstrated to exist at doses <0.2 mSv?  If not  , what is the lowest dose the LNT hypothesis has been statistically shown to exist and what would be the error associated with that estimate?
Comments and references would be appreciated.

Kjell Johansen
Sr. Nuclear Chemistry Analyst
Point Beach Nuclear Plant
Two Rivers, WI 54241
kjell.johansen at nee.com

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