"Cancer 'will be beaten' within 50 years, expert says"

["Franta, Jaroslav" <frantaj@aecl.ca>]

posted at
http://www.nationalpost.com/news.asp?f=000105/169024&s2=world
is this article, which I hope people at EPA, NRC, AECB, etc. get to see:

Wednesday, January 05, 2000
Cancer 'will be beaten' within 50 years, expert says
But incidence on rise: 'Genetic revolution' will see a leap in cure and
treatment rates
Aisling Irwin
The Daily Telegraph 
LONDON - A cure for cancer will be found within 50 years, an expert
predicted yesterday, although more people are likely to suffer from the
disease. 
Doctors say that it will become an increasingly manageable condition
controlled for years with drugs. 
"We are on the eve of a genetic revolution which will see a leap in the cure
rates for cancer and a whole range of new, effective treatments," said
Professor Gordon McVie, director-general of Britain's Cancer Research
Campaign. 
"Cancer may not be cured by 2050, but it will be beaten and the disease will
be as readily controlled as diabetes.'' 
Genetic testing will identify those predisposed to certain cancers, so that
preventive efforts can be targeted rather than aimed at everyone, he said. 
More public awareness and less fear and embarrassment about symptoms will
lead to earlier diagnosis. New drugs will operate to a different philosophy,
preventing cancers from spreading rather than killing them, a strategy which
makes many more therapies possible. 
Britain's Cancer Research Campaign said that, in 1996, the latest year for
which figures are available, 41% of men and 38% of women were likely to
develop cancer, compared with 32% and 31% respectively in 1981. People are
living longer and two-thirds of cancers are diagnosed in those older than
65. 
"These figures sound frightening, but in reality they aren't,'' said Prof.
McVie. 
"The fact that more of us than ever before are living to a ripe old age has
to be good news.'' 
Cancers increasing in incidence include breast, which now afflicts one in 10
women, up from one in 12. Doctors say one reason is improved diagnosis as
the breast-screening program picks up cases that would otherwise not have
been caught. 
The incidence of prostate cancer has risen, as has the number of men
developing bowel cancer, possibly because of poor diet. Fewer are developing
lung cancer as more smokers quit. Stomach cancer is declining. 
Releasing the figures yesterday, the charity said survival rates have been
increasing, with 31% of men and 43% of women surviving cancer for more than
five years, compared with 19% and 32% in 1981. 
"Often people's fears that they are going to die are unfounded,'' said Susan
Osborne for the charity. 
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Comment: so what do you suppose will be the impact of this bit of "news" on
plans for long-term nuclear waste disposal, where billions of dollars are to
be (and indeed have already been) spent to protect future generations from
minor radiation doses up to ten thousand years or more from now ? 
If cancer "will be beaten within 50 years," how significant will its threat
be after 200- to 400-TIMES that length of time ? 
Is that money well spent ?
Wouldn't it be more appropriate to design for a 10 x 50 = 500 year
containment life for buried nuclear waste ? (I wager that the answer is NO,
if you happen to be a geologist earning his/her livelihood from research on
nuke waste disposal site suitability....)

Jaro
frantaj@aecl.ca
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