Re: Thoughts please! (ICRP 60)

["Bjorn Cedervall" <bcradsafers@hotmail.com>]

>I am wondering, is there more simple answer available?
>Do all those models have ANY practical applications, or it is all, >just 
>big toys for big boys.
A good question that I think could be sent to the ICRP.

>I had an impression that ICRP is "a serious and respectable >organization"
>I cannot get rid of the impression: "Wow, What are those people >doing and 
>where are they going????!!!!"

Let me put it this way: Computer/math analysis of epidemiological data is 
one thing. Molecular biology is a different world. I know that the 
mathematically brilliant person at ICRP who probably did most of the 
Gompertz work has the most serious intentions - to cast some light upon 
attributable death probabilities. These math models are "data driven", not 
mechanistic. I think that the major problem with the ICRP60 model is that 
there has not been an integration of a multistep tumor development into it 
(initiation, promotion, progression) - good news for future PhD students.
Such an integration is the next thing to do - for different kinds of tumors 
with different mechanistic event categories - meanwhile I think that the 
merits are that the Gompertz studies puts some perspective on the orders of 
magnitude we discuss (cancer risk). After all, look at the graph describing 
the extra death probability rate if you take an extra annual effective dose 
of 50 mSv per year from age 18 and on. Few people will ever come close to 
one percent of that so I would remain cool - this could hardly be turned 
into a major regulatory administration. Well, I think the majority of 
questions should be addressed to the ICRP, not me...

A mathematical model cannot prove a hypothesis but the good thing is that it 
may exclude some suggested mechanistic hypothesis that are wrong. So some of 
these computer exercises are justified I think - just handle the output with 
caution... I am pretty sure that with these studies in hand - and further 
analysis of the data - it will again be shown that radiation is usually not 
a thing in life to worry much about (look at the age group 15-25 - what 
happens when people get motor cycles and cars for instance).


My personal reflections only,

Bjorn Cedervall   bcradsafers@hotmail.com


______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com

************************************************************************
The RADSAFE Frequently Asked Questions list, archives and subscription
information can be accessed at http://www.ehs.uiuc.edu/~rad/radsafe.html