Re: Thoughts please! (ICRP 60)

[Kerembaev@cs.com]

Bjorn,

May be, I missing something from your answer/explanation.
Could you help me with that.
I am wondering, is there more simple answer available?
Do all those models have ANY practical applications, or it is all, just big 
toys for big boys.
I had an impression that ICRP is "a serious and respectable organization"
I cannot get rid of the impression: "Wow, What are those people doing and 
where are they going????!!!!" I understand that statistics is not an easy 
subject to explain in plain words but...
When I was a student and if I did not know the answer on exam's question, I 
always tried to use sort of complicated "smart" terms and models, hoping that 
professor will forget the question. ;-)  (I am not saying, that you are doing 
the same.)
It never really work out, well in the end, I had to admit that I had wasted 
the time.
I will stop here, I think, I had my two minutes of your attention.
Thanks.

Emil.
kerembaev@cs.com.

Why people have three different languages; writing, spoken and thinking?
Why can't we write what we say and tell what we think?

"Unknown Author" 

<< >Question the concept of 'additional' deaths due to background radiation.
 >
 >This is additional to what?

In a message dated 2/2/00 10:04:40 Pacific Standard Time, 
bcradsafers@hotmail.com writes:

  I don't know where exactly this above came from (quoted by someone else) 
but 
 ICRP 60 deals with death _rate_ probabilities based on the classical 
 Gompertz function G(zero, u) = A x Exp(B x u) + C
 where A, B, and C are constants from demographic data and u is age. Then a 
 death probability rate increment to this is added, dp/du, so the new total 
 function becomes
 
 G(u)=G(zero, u) + dp/du
 
 This is not a probability function, but instead a probability rate function 
 used for plots and graphs (describing how we decay with increasing age - it 
 is a quite nice exponential after the age of 35 or so - if I recall 
 correctly a Swede should theoretically have a maximum life span of about 114 
 years according to this model - obviously in conflict with the decay model 
 for radioactivity) in ICRP 60. Well, it is interesting to see what can come 
 out of computers.
 :-)
 
 Bjorn Cedervall  bcradsafers@hotmail.com
 http://www.geocities.com/bjorn_cedervall/
  >>
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