Chernobyl Health Effects.

[Ivor Surveyor <isurveyor@vianet.net.au>]

A letter has appeared in a Local Perth community Newspaper (February 1-7,
2000) signed by 
professor Alfred Grauaug making a number of statements concerning the
Chernobyl Accident.
The letter is written by Professor Grauaug in his capacity as chairman,
Medical association for the Prevention of War (WA branch).

The following statements according to Professor Grauaug (A neonatologist)
are the most conservative figures.  The basis of these statements is a 1996
paper written for Greenpeace by Dr Herman Drumfeld.

*	300 people have died by 1991 as a result of the accident.

*	It is estimated that in the long-term the disaster may claim at least
15,000 lives.

*	The number of birth defects in Belarus since the disaster has risen by
161 percent.

*	The number of malignant tumours among children rose by 38 percent.

*	Diseases of the skeleton,muscle and connective tissue by 62 percent.

*	Diabetes by 28 percent.

*	When the accident happened about 500,000 people were evacuated.

*	A group of 116,000 people were forced to settle permanently elsewhere.

* 	Belarus spent $250 billion (repeat billion) trying to deal with the
economic consequence of the disaster.


Professor Grauaug reference is a 1996 paper yet there are no mention in his
letter of cases of thyroid cancer or psychological problems induced by
radio phobia.

All the above (with the exception that 116,00 were evacuated from the
exclusion zone in 1986) is totally at variance with the information
available on the IAEA web-site.  

It is my understanding that public health data in the old Soviet Union
prior to the accident was very sketchy and possible non existent.  So how
can Greenpeace and others obtain a base line rate in order to measure the
percentage increase?   One appreciates it would be asking too much to
expect Greenpeace and/or their sister organization to bracket their
estimates with confidence limits etc. 

Can anyone tell me please where and how  Greenpeace, MAPW and similar Green
groups get their information? 
Ivor Surveyor		[isurveyor@vianet.net.au]
Emeritus Consultant Physician,
Department of Nuclear Medicine
Royal Perth Hospital.


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