RE: Chernobyl Health Effects.

["Tsurikov, Nick" <nick.tsurikov@iluka.com>]

Dear Ivor,
Please let me know who's the editor, what's the name of the paper etc. and
if I can get a copy of this article.
It would be quite interesting argument.  I'll give him some...
Kind regards
Nick Tsurikov
Eneabba, Western Australia
nick.tsurikov@iluka.com <mailto:Nick.tsurikov@iluka.com> 
1000+1 radiation links:
http://eneabba.net/ <http://eneabba.net/> 


		-----Original Message-----
		From:	Ivor Surveyor [mailto:isurveyor@vianet.net.au]
		Sent:	Friday, 4 February 2000 16:05
		To:	Multiple recipients of list
		Subject:	Chernobyl Health Effects.

		A letter has appeared in a Local Perth community Newspaper
(February 1-7,
		2000) signed by 
		professor Alfred Grauaug making a number of statements
concerning the
		Chernobyl Accident.
		The letter is written by Professor Grauaug in his capacity
as chairman,
		Medical association for the Prevention of War (WA branch).

		The following statements according to Professor Grauaug (A
neonatologist)
		are the most conservative figures.  The basis of these
statements is a 1996
		paper written for Greenpeace by Dr Herman Drumfeld.

		*	300 people have died by 1991 as a result of the
accident.

		*	It is estimated that in the long-term the disaster
may claim at least
		15,000 lives.

		*	The number of birth defects in Belarus since the
disaster has risen by
		161 percent.

		*	The number of malignant tumours among children rose
by 38 percent.

		*	Diseases of the skeleton,muscle and connective
tissue by 62 percent.

		*	Diabetes by 28 percent.

		*	When the accident happened about 500,000 people were
evacuated.

		*	A group of 116,000 people were forced to settle
permanently elsewhere.

		* 	Belarus spent $250 billion (repeat billion) trying
to deal with the
		economic consequence of the disaster.


		Professor Grauaug reference is a 1996 paper yet there are no
mention in his
		letter of cases of thyroid cancer or psychological problems
induced by
		radio phobia.

		All the above (with the exception that 116,00 were evacuated
from the
		exclusion zone in 1986) is totally at variance with the
information
		available on the IAEA web-site.  

		It is my understanding that public health data in the old
Soviet Union
		prior to the accident was very sketchy and possible non
existent.  So how
		can Greenpeace and others obtain a base line rate in order
to measure the
		percentage increase?   One appreciates it would be asking
too much to
		expect Greenpeace and/or their sister organization to
bracket their
		estimates with confidence limits etc. 

		Can anyone tell me please where and how  Greenpeace, MAPW
and similar Green
		groups get their information? 
		Ivor Surveyor		[isurveyor@vianet.net.au]
		Emeritus Consultant Physician,
		Department of Nuclear Medicine
		Royal Perth Hospital.


	
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