Re: [rad-sci-l] Chernobyl genetic disaster

[Jim Muckerheide <jmuckerheide@delphi.com>]

Mike, Group,
A note from Zbigniew Jaworowski on this "report":

Dear Jim,
  The world should rather become accustomed to occasional catastrophic
announcements from the post-Soviet countries. As usually, a director of a
Belorussian institute tries to get financial help, facing the disastrous
economic situation of his country. However, he should know better the normal
prevalences of hereditary disorders. According to UNSCEAR data to be
published after May 2000, the normal prevalence of congenital anomalies in
Hungary, a Central European country with probably the best human genetic
studies in the world, is 7.1% of live births (UNSCEAR A/AC.82/R.596, 
p.105). 
  Taking the population of Belarus as about 10 millions, and the birth rate 
the same as it was in the former Soviet Union in 1991 of 17.6 per 1000 
people, i.e. 180 000 births per year, the normal number of congenital
anomalies in the Belarus should be about 12 800 per year. This is 5 times 
more than reported by Vladislav Ostapenko.
  Population decline is observed over whole post-Soviet area, including far
eastern parts of Russia, not affected at all by the Chernobyl fallout. In
1999 Russia experienced natural population loss of 836 000 people, and the
natural population loss of combined Russia and Ukraine (total population of
200 million) has surpassed 1.7 million since 1992 (R. Douglas, EIR vol. 27, 
No. 7, p.25-27, 2000). All this has nothing to do with the Chernobyl 
radiation.
  Radiation doses received by Belorussian children (about 60 mSv) were much
lower than the doses in Hiroshima and Nagasaki (up to 6000 mSv) where no
hereditary changes in the progeny of A-bomb victims, were observed. 
  To cite from the UNSCEAR 1999 draft document on Chernobyl effects: "Risk of
leukemia, one of the most sensitive indicators of radiation exposure, is not
elevated even among the accident recovery operation workers or in children.
There is no scientific proof of an increase in other non-malignant
disorders, somatic or mental, that are related to ionizing radiation".
Best wishes,
Zbigniew

"Michael C. Baker" wrote:
> 
> Post-Chernobyl genetic disaster in Belarus
> 
> BELARUS: March 1, 2000
> 
> MINSK - Post-Soviet Belarus has been plunged into a
> demographic disaster, with soaring levels of infertility
> and genetic changes 14 years after the Chernobyl
> disaster in neighbouring Ukraine, doctors said
> yesterday.
> 
> "Science cannot yet assess the consequences of the
> Chernobyl accident, but it is plain that a demographic
> catastrophe has occurred in Belarus," Vladislav Ostapenko,
> head of Belarus's radiation medicine institute, told a news
> conference.
> 
> "It is clear that we are seeing genetic changes, especially
> among those who were less than six years of age when
> subjected to radiation. These people are now starting
> families."
> 
> Belarus, a country of 10 million downwind from Chernobyl,
> bore the brunt of the April 26, 1986 explosion and fire in the
> power station's fourth reactor.
> 
> One quarter of its territory was subjected to severe
> contamination and tens of thousands of people were
> evacuated from their homes. Radiation from Chernobyl
> spread throughout most of Europe, but Belarus, Ukraine
> and Russia were worst hit and still devote huge resources
> to cleanup operations.
> 
> Ostapenko said that within seven years of the accident,
> mortality rates were outstripping birth rates.
> 
> Girls in affected areas had five times the normal rate of
> deformations in their reproductive systems and boys three
> times the norm. Each year, 2,500 births were recorded with
> genetic abnormalities and 500 pregnancies were terminated
> after testing.
> 
> Thousands of cases of thyroid cancer, rare in areas not
> subject to high radiation levels, have been recorded in
> Belarus's "risk zone", where a million people still live. High
> levels have now been observed among teenagers.
> 
> "We are seeing problems of infertility in this generation," he
> said. "Exactly the sort of observations we saw in animals
> subjected to similar radiation."
> 
> Belarus, Ostapenko said, needed more outside help to
> cope with the consequences. "It is impossible to say
> whether we are over the peak of the consequences of
> radioactive contamination or whether we are just on the
> threshold."
> 
> Gennady Lazyuk, head of a state institute for hereditary
> diseases, said the aftermath of the accident was
> compounded by ills associated with post-Soviet hardship.
> 
> "Of course this is a complex problem and includes low
> living standards, alcoholism and poor nutrition," he said.
> "Regardless, in contaminated areas the growth rate in
> genetic abnormalities is more than twice as high as in
> uncontaminated areas."
> 
> REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
> 
> __________________________________
> 
> Michael C. Baker
> Environmental Technology Group (E-ET)
> Los Alamos National Laboratory
> Mail Stop J594, Los Alamos, NM 87545
> 
> mcbaker@lanl.gov
> 
> (505) 667-7334 (phone)
> (505) 665-8346 (fax)
> (505) 996-3519 (pager)
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