Re: Radon and Lung Cancer

["Otto G. Raabe" <ograabe@ucdavis.edu>]

At 08:05 AM 03/13/2000 -0600, Jim M. wrote:
>Otto,
>
>So...

Dear Jim:

Lubin's arguments are primarily mathematical. For him it is easy to show
that, given an appropriate cross-correlation among the factors affecting
lung cancer induction, ANY SLOPE in the radon vs. lung cancer is possible.
Given a specific cross-correlation, the observed slope will be consistently
found in various ecological experiments. It's a kind of built-in
phenomenological bias.

"Where is the example of a credible ecological study that demonstrates any
such effect?" Why, it is Cohen's data itself that provides that example, if
Lubin is right. According to Lubin only "scientifically valid" case-control
studies can show the true relations, and Lubin believes his studies do just
that. See Lubin & Boice, J. Nat. Cancer Inst. 89, 49-57 (1997).

Jim, you asked for my personal opinion. Well, scientifically, I don't think
we know the whole story yet. I believe that there is probably very little
or no risk from exposure to radon in homes below 10 pCi/L, that almost all
lung cancer can be connected with tobacco smoke, inhaled drugs, air
pollution, immunological depression caused by various agents, and
hereditary factors. I think that it is possible, but not proved, that there
may truly be a beneficial effect from the biological stress provided by
low-level alpha radiation exposure, but I know of no study that
demonstrates this effect beyond reasonable doubt. There are studies that
suggest that there may not be a meaningful beneficial effect at low doses,
such as the "by-stander" cell studies with alpha particles.

Sincerely, 

Otto 


		*****************************************************
		Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
              Institute of Toxicology & Environmental Health (ITEH)
		   (Street address: Building 3792, Old Davis Road)
		University of California, Davis, CA 95616
		Phone: 530-752-7754  FAX: 530-758-6140
		E-mail ograabe@ucdavis.edu
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