RE: Risk estimate and comparison

["Bradshaw, Keith" <Keith.Bradshaw@nnc.co.uk>]

	I'm afraid I don't think this is a very good example.  You have to
differentiate between *stochastic* and *deterministic* effects.  

> I did following calculation with students in a graduate level academic
> class last
> year and I plan to continue. I felt that everybody understood the concept
> of LNT
> very well.
> 
> Risk Estimate of T Use in US:
> 
> The T is a type of pill we take when we have headache.
> 
> It is assumed that any amount of T could produce adverse effects in the
> human body
> no matter how small the amount. There is no threshold.
> 
> Lethal dose = 100 pills to a person   = 100 pills/death. A physician told
> me that
> about 70 T pills would be a lethal dose (liver toxin) to a person.
> 
> Fatal risk factor is 0.01 per pill (0.01 fatal risk per pill).
> 
> Lets assume that an average US population takes 10 pills each per year and
> there
> are about 275 million people in the US.
> 
> 275 million US population x 10 pills/person/year = 2.75 billion
> person-pill/year
> 
> 2.75 billion person-pill x 0.01 fatal risk per pill = 27.5 million
> deaths/year
> 
> Is this a reasonable estimate?
> 
> This is entirely my personal opinion.
> 


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