Re: more on Critics Allege Infant Mortality Rate

["D. Kosloff" <dkosloff@ncweb.com>]

WOW.  Am I surprised!!!

Don Kosloff dkosloff@ncweb.com
2910 Main St Perry OH 44081

----- Original Message -----
From: Tony Harrison <laharris@smtpgate.dphe.state.co.us>
To: Multiple recipients of list <radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu>
Sent: Thursday, April 27, 2000 10:43 AM
Subject: Re: more on Critics Allege Infant Mortality Rate


> I'm not getting the same numbers Mangano did because we're working with
different data sets.  Nevertheless, comparing '85-89 summary data to 1998
data we see:
> Weld Co.  decrease 27.6%
> Larimer Co. decrease 21.5%
> Denver Co. decrease 18%
> Boulder Co. decrease 53%
> All Colorado decrease 27.2%
>
> I bet there's no significant difference between the Weld Co. number and
the Colorarado number.
>
> Both Mangano and I are presenting "crude" rates.  Infant mortality has
been shown, to everyone's satisfaction, to be highly correlated with mothers
age, income, education and level of prenatal care, factors that will
completely overwhelm any effect from reactor effluents.  This is why
Denver's rate hasn't declined as much as Colorado's, and why Boulder's has
declined more than anybody's.  Without adjustment for these and probably
other factors Mangano's numbers tell us NOTHING.  A crude comparison between
areas where the reactors closed, and areas where they didn't would be more
informative than this mishsmash.
>
> Tony Harrison, MSPH
> Colo. Dept. of Public Health & Environment
> tony.harrison@state.co.us
> (303)692-3046
>
> >>> "D. Kosloff" <dkosloff@ncweb.com> 04/26/00 09:11PM >>>
> Did they decline faster in the "downwind" counties than they did in other
> counties?  That is the claim.
>
> >
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Tony Harrison <laharris@smtpgate.dphe.state.co.us>
> To: Multiple recipients of list <radsafe@romulus.ehs.uiuc.edu>
> Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2000 3:24 PM
> Subject: Re: more on Critics Allege Infant Mortality Rate
>
>
> > I just checked Colorado Vital Statistics for infant mortality rates from
> 1989 to 1998 for Larimer & Weld Counties, Colorado.  Mr Mangano claims
these
> are downwind of the (ex)Fort St. Vrain reactor.  Maybe, maybe not.
Anyway,
> infant mortality rates did in fact decline in that period.  Guess what?
> They did in the rest of the State too.  Hooray for modern medicine and
> neonatology.
> >
>  I recommend checking infant mortality rates (and other endpoints if you
can
> find them) for "downwind" counties around reactors that did not close in
the
> period in question.  If the rates declined in the same manner, you can
> pretty much discount reactors as having anything to do with the effect.
>
>
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