Re: epi studies -Hiroshima/Nagasaki % increase in cancer mortality

[RadiumProj@cs.com]

In a message dated 6/7/00 5:19:49 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
Douglas.Minnema@ns.doe.gov writes:

> > 3.  # of observed cancer fatalities (solid tumors/leukemia): 7,578 / 249
>  > 
>  > 4. # of excess cancers attributed to the exposures: 334 / 87
>  > 
>   Draw your own conclusion, but I personally have a lot of trouble
>  accepting that the low-dose studies can ever approach this level of quality
>  because the numbers are just not there.
>  
=====
If memory serves me, the average WBDE in the Life Span Study [LSS] 
Hiroshima/Nagasaki cohort studied was about 25 rem.
Thus per the LSS, 25 rem led to about a 4% increase in cancer mortality.

Accordingly,  studies of smaller populations exposed to a small fraction of 
the LSS average dose are extremently unlikely to show any statistically 
significant effects. However,   other study groups involving much elevated 
exposures to particular organs and especially doses that are very 
non-homogeneous may differ sharply from what one would predict from whole 
body doses at the level of the LSS. 

Stewart Farber
172 Old Orchard Way
Public Health Sciences
Warren, VT 05674
[802] 496-3356
email: radiumproj@cs.com
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