Re: Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study

["Frank R. Borger_(FRB)" <frb@gammex.com>]

Criterion One: How strong is the association between exposure and the risk?


Frank R. Borger - Senior Physicist, Gammex RMI
fborger@gammex.com phn 608-828-7289 fax 608-828-7500

How many physicists does it take to change a light bulb?
Only one. According to Heisenberg, all you have to do
is observe the light bulb, and you change it.


>>> <EPIRAD@aol.com> June 21, 2000 15:43 >>>
>In a message dated 06/21/2000 1:08:58 PM Central Daylight Time, mdb7@cdc.gov 
>writes:
<snip>
>The study claims to demonstrate a STRONG statistical association between residential
>radon and lung cancer, based on a corrected odds ratio of 2.14 in the highest exposure 
>group and excluding all cases that died during the study. >>
>----------------------------------------
>Mr. Brooks,
>
>As lead author for the Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study, I respect your concerns 
>and thank-you for taking the time to read the paper prior to criticizing our 
>data analyses (which is part of the methodology) and interpretation of the 
>data.  I do strongly disagree with many of the interpretations and assertions 
>in your posting.  

In my rather naive understanding of the "Hill Criteria," I read, 

"The first Hill criterion is the strength of the association between exposure and risk. 
A strong association is one with a relative risk (RR) of 5 or more. Tobacco smoking, 
for example, shows a strong association, with a RR for lung cancer 10-30 times that 
of non-smokers. A RR of less than about 3 indicates a weak association. 
A RR below about 1.5 is nearly meaningless unless it is supported by other data. "

By my application, this indicates a weak to meaningless correlation for the highest
exposure group in the state with the highest exposure in the nation.

So I pose this question. How can one posutlate a STRONG correlation between
Radon and Lung Cancer. Perhaps we're dealing with wordsmithing akin to that
done by our illustrious President? "It depends on what you mean by 'strong'"



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