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Re: LNT, Collective Dose



Hi all,

Jerry Cohen wrote:

> -- I sure don't want to hurt EPA's feelings :-), but the above statement is
> total nonsense. There is no way to prove a threshold. Logically, it is
> impossible to prove any negative.

This statement is true only if the excess risk is positive semi-definite! ( R
>=  0)!
You can demonstrate a threshold if the excess risk goes to negative values
below the threshold!  It occurs when you have hormesis as in Bernie
Cohen's radon measurements and when you don't re-normalize the
Japanese bomb survivor data by setting the leukemia mortality ratio
(about 0.7 for the lowest dose group) equal to a relative risk of 1!
Equating a mortality ratio at zero dose, which is not equal to one with
a relative risk which is one means bringing in the LNT by the back
door!!  For numerical data and logical arguments, see:

Alvarez, J.L., and F.A. Seiler, "New Approaches to Low-Dose Risk
Modeling," Technology: Journal of the Franklin Institute, 333A, 33-51,
1996.

Cohen, B.L.  Test of the linear-no threshold theory of radiation
carcinogenesis for inhaled Radon decay products. Health Phys. 68:
157-174; 1995.

Cohen, B.L. Validity of the Linear-No Threshold of Radiation
Carcinogenesis in the Low Dose Region. Technology: Journal
Franklin Institute 6, 43-61 (1999).

Seiler, F.A., and J.L. Alvarez, "Is the 'Ecological Fallacy' a Fallacy?"
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 6, 921-941, 2000.

As Joe Alvarez and I have to remind even ourselves every once and
so often: " This is an argument based on LNT thinking! (which seems
to pervade most low-dose arguments!)"

Have a nice weekend anyway,

Fritz

--

 " The American Republic will endure until the day Congress
 discovers that it can bribe the Public with the Public's money."
                                       Alexis de Tocqueville
                                       Democracy in America

***************************

Fritz A. Seiler, Ph.D.
Sigma Five Consulting
P.O. Box 1709
Los Lunas, NM 87031, USA
Tel.    505-866-5193
Fax.    505-866-5197
e-mail: faseiler@nmia.com

***************************


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