RE: LNT & Global Warming

["Dukelow, James S Jr" <jim.dukelow@PNL.GOV>]

Jerry Cohen wrote:

-----Original Message-----

From: Jerry Cohen

To: Dukelow, James S Jr; radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu

Sent: 7/17/01 5:56 PM

Subject: Re: LNT & Global Warming



 Jim

    First, I'd like to thank you for your thoughtful comments on my

assertion that,

like the LNT hypothesis, the rationale behind current concerns on global

warming are

unfounded. I don't doubt that in future ages there will be periods of

global

warming as well as cooling (ice ages) just as they have occured over the

history of the

planet.  The one certainty is that the climate will continue to change

with

or without

the intevention of man.

    For facts and analysis to support my argument, I don't think I can

do

better than

to recommend a review Fred Singer's book, "Hot Talk, Cold Science "

(Independant Institute, Oakland, CA, 1997). In it, he reviews the

history of

the world's climate and the assesses the potential impact of increased

CO2

levels,

ozone layer depletion, and other of man's activities. He concludes that

we

currently

know so little about predictive climatology, that taking any precipitous

action based

on contempory pronoucements of doom would be  foolhardy at best.  I

guess

that I

am one of that "small band" (17,000+) of scientists who share his views.

    IMHO, the proposed actions to prevent global warming effects are

analogous to the extensive policies and regulations adopted to prevent

the

conjectured effects of low-level radiation. Look at what that has gotten

us.

Billions of dollars have been squandered, and nobody seems to be  better

off,

except perhaps for the recipients of those funds.



=================



Jerry,



If you have read some of my rants in the past, you know that we agree on LNT.



It really is a small band.  A global warming mailing list I read has an address

list of 100-150 and includes most of the prominent dissidents.  By citing the

17,000+, I assume you are referring to the Robinson's petition, at

<www.oism.org>.  The list provided on the web site breaks the signers down by

state, but gives no indication of home town or professional affiliations.  The

list for Washington state includes roughly 30 MDs, 10 DDSs, and a handful of

DVMs.  Those are the only signers whose areas of expertise are discernible.  I

was able to recognize a few of my colleagues here on the Hanford site, but none

of them has any particular expertise in the area of climate science.  Most of

them are grumpy old nuclear engineers, like me, or Chem E's.  None of the

laboratory's 30 or so actual atmospheric scientists has signed the petition.



I don't consider Fred Singer a credible source of information about climate,

although the Wall Street Journal and the National Post certainly offer him a

bully pulpit.  You might notice that, like most of the climate dissident

writing, Singer book is not published by one of the usual technical publishers.

I haven't checked, but I would be willing to bet that Independant [sic]

Institute is a conservative activist publishing house, like Regnery, publisher

of The Hole in the Ozone Scare.  Singer has continued to peddle the assertion

that the MSU temperature record (i.e., the "satellites") shows the lower

troposphere to be cooling (global average).  That was true until 1998, but has

not been true since.  More to the point, the MSU record shows astounding

temperature increases for northern hemisphere high latitudes, on the order of

0.25-0.30 deg C per decade (extrapolated, that would be 2.5 to 3.0 deg C per

century, right in line with the IPCC projections for the 21st Century.



Climate, over the millenia, has certainly been highly variable.  What is

striking about the last 30 years (and to a lesser extent, the last 120 years) is

the pace of change.



Best regards.



Jim Dukelow

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Richland, WA

jim.dukelow@pnl.gov



These comments are mine and have not been reviewed and/or approved by my

management or by the U.S. Department of Energy.



************************************************************************

You are currently subscribed to the Radsafe mailing list. To unsubscribe,

send an e-mail to Majordomo@list.vanderbilt.edu  Put the text "unsubscribe

radsafe" (no quote marks) in the body of the e-mail, with no subject line.