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RE: Statistics 101







On: Thursday, July 26, 2001 9:39 AM

Ruth Weiner, Ph. D. wrote:



I question global warming in part because neither a

consistent explanation nor a consistent mechanism has been proposed, nor can

I figure out how they tell.  The ozone depletion mechanism is a model of an

observed phenomenoin, not like global warming, which is a prediction based

on a not-yet-validated model.



ruthweiner@aol.com



While certainly no climate change expert, I would tend to disagree.  I believe a

 consistent

explanation/mechanism has been proposed and that a lot of progress has been made

 in

validating the models.  See, for example, the following article in Science:



External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic

Forcings



Peter A. Stott, S. F. B. Tett, G. S. Jones, M. R. Allen, J. F. B. Mitchell, G.

J. Jenkins



A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere

general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors

have contributed signiÞcantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model

successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations,

indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly inßuenced by

external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean

temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature

variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warm-

ing under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate

similar

to that observed in recent decades.



www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 290 15 DECEMBER 2000 2133



Brian R. Gaulke, CHP

Brian_Gaulke@hc-sc.gc.ca





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