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RE: Statistics 101
On: Thursday, July 26, 2001 9:39 AM
Ruth Weiner, Ph. D. wrote:
I question global warming in part because neither a
consistent explanation nor a consistent mechanism has been proposed, nor can
I figure out how they tell. The ozone depletion mechanism is a model of an
observed phenomenoin, not like global warming, which is a prediction based
on a not-yet-validated model.
ruthweiner@aol.com
While certainly no climate change expert, I would tend to disagree. I believe a
consistent
explanation/mechanism has been proposed and that a lot of progress has been made
in
validating the models. See, for example, the following article in Science:
External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic
Forcings
Peter A. Stott, S. F. B. Tett, G. S. Jones, M. R. Allen, J. F. B. Mitchell, G.
J. Jenkins
A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere
general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors
have contributed signiÞcantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model
successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations,
indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly inßuenced by
external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean
temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature
variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warm-
ing under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate
similar
to that observed in recent decades.
www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 290 15 DECEMBER 2000 2133
Brian R. Gaulke, CHP
Brian_Gaulke@hc-sc.gc.ca
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