Re: News Article: Scary? You Bet It Is

["Jack Earley" <jearley@enercon.com>]

Extremely valid point here. Chernobyl didn't happen until three or more

technical specifications were violated to perform the turbine run-down test.

The probability of an accident occurring rises dramatically the closer you

are to the point of danger. The likelihood of my being bitten by a water

moccasin in my office is pretty low, but the probability of my coworkers

being bitten while out walking down an environmental site approaches a

hundred percent if they don't take appropriate precautions.



Jack Earley

Radiological Engineer



Enercon Services, Inc.

6525 N. Meridian, Suite 503

OKC, OK  73116

phone: 405-722-7693

fax:       405-722-7694

jearley@enercon.com



************************************************************************

This e-mail and any of its attachments may contain Enercon Services, Inc.

proprietary information, which is privileged, confidential, or subject to

copyright belonging to Enercon Services, Inc. This e-mail is intended solely

for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If you

are not the intended recipient of this e-mail, you are hereby notified that

any dissemination, distribution, copying, or action taken in relation to the

contents of and attachments to this e-mail is strictly prohibited and may be

unlawful.  If you have received this e-mail in error, please notify the

sender immediately and permanently delete the original and any copy of this

e-mail and any printout.

----- Original Message -----

From: "Bjorn Cedervall" <bcradsafers@HOTMAIL.COM>

To: <radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu>

Sent: September 02, 2001 6:30 p.m.

Subject: Re: News Article: Scary? You Bet It Is





> >I read this opinion pieced in today's Washington Post, and thought I

should

> >pass it along.  If you substitute nuclear power for shark, I think you

will

> >find the parallels interesting.  To view the entire article, go to

> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27513-2001Aug31.html

> ---------

> This was definitely worth the reading time. One aspect that the author

(Fred

> Barbash) touches several times is the issue of averages and statistics.

> These numbers can become quite irrelevant when you actually are exposed to

a

> high risk. Say that the average number of people being killed annually by

> lightening or shark bites or whatever. An incidence number describing such

> events are small (say about less than 1/100 000 or so annually - I don't

> have the numbers available at this time - the point here is just that the

> average probability is very low).

>

> This contrasts dramatically the situation when you actually are swimming

in

> the coastal waters of Florida or South Carolina (I have tried both but

will

> be more careful in the future) or if you insist to play football while

rain

> and thunder storm is present. Large parts of the population may not be

> exposed to the risk at all - because they live in areas where lightening

or

> shark are either absent or rare - or they hardly ever expose themselves to

> the risk (but some encounters can be quite unexpected - like the pygmy

> rattler at Walmart in Hammond, LA, which bit somebody looking at potted

> flowers in April this year

> http://www.kingsnake.com/forum/crotalid/messages/7451.html - wonder who

you

> make meaningful statistical models for that).

>

> Just my reflections,

>

> Bjorn Cedervall    bcradsafers@hotmail.com

>

>

> _________________________________________________________________

> Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp

>

> ************************************************************************

> You are currently subscribed to the Radsafe mailing list. To unsubscribe,

> send an e-mail to Majordomo@list.vanderbilt.edu  Put the text "unsubscribe

> radsafe" (no quote marks) in the body of the e-mail, with no subject line.

>

>



************************************************************************

You are currently subscribed to the Radsafe mailing list. To unsubscribe,

send an e-mail to Majordomo@list.vanderbilt.edu  Put the text "unsubscribe

radsafe" (no quote marks) in the body of the e-mail, with no subject line.