Re: Number of deaths from Chernobyl disaster//ABC News

[Kerimbaev <kerrembaev@YAHOO.COM>]

Bjorn,



You are not the first who is finding so "random"

distribution in number of deaths in the

"Chernobyl reports".

You are right, it depends on who was doing the

reporting, when it was done.

Different interest groups are using the most

useful for their cause number. Newsmedia is using

whatever each reporter wants. So I would not call

randomalization as a media's fall.

The whole data collection was inconsistant,

sequence of the events were not helpful to have a

"good data".





The Facts:



1. One person, a missing Shift Operator on duty

in the Main Reactor Circulation Pumps (Unit #4),

assumed to be dead and "buried" inside the

Sarcophaguses.



1.1 It was a direct result of the explosion in

the Unit 4 of the Chernobyl Power Plant on night

of April 26, 1986.



2. During the "reactor recovery efforts" =

preventing fire from spreading to Units 3, 2 and

1., Thirty one (31) Firefighter died in 30 days

after as a result of receiving acute doses of

radiation. 



3. There were numerous incidents of radiation

overexposures to the different degrees, during 

"the Chernobyl Recovery Efforts in 1986-1988;

most of overexposures were chronic type, some of

them were sub-acute as a result of operational

needs, lack of the personal safety equipment,

experience, not following the instructions, lack

of common sense, unfamiliarity with the nature of

exposures to the radiation, etc.





3.1 About 250,000 of the military reserve

personell "went thru" the "Chernobyl Routine" and

many them were overexposed due to poor/lack of

personal dosimetry controls and " military

establishment attitudes to the solders as "the

meat for the guns".



3.1 Those records as you can expect were not kept

well.



3.2 Subsequently, the data is so "random".



4. It is very unfortunate, that WE again had

failed not just in assesting the magnitude of the

immediate damage to the Reactor #4 but also very

valuable data to establish any reliable

correlation between Radiation Dose and its

effects, were missing, 



5. Some more of the history,



5.1 There was a very small group of voices

calling ONLY to stabilize Reactor #4, De-fuel

Reactors #3,2,1 and to leave Chernobyl as "it

is", DO NOT try to retrieve, restart and put

online Units 3,2,1 as it was done during

1986-1988. 



5.2 Personally, I thought, it was the right way

to deal with the disaster.



5.3 Unfortunately, the ALARA concept was not a

common practice in the USSR in those days.



5.4 If those voices were heard and followed then

many lives were NOT effected, not just from the

"radiation" but as a whole Chernobyl Syndrome.



6. As I told it before the exact "number" is

UNKNOWN, everyone can choose his/her own.

It is a mysterious way to express scientific

data.

But it is the only one which could be established

now..



Emil.







You wrote:



>>>>

>Please check out the following URL: 

>http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/DailyNews/strike_nukesafety011022.html

- ------

It seems like there is a randomizer that the

newsmedia use to tell how many 

died from the Chernobyl disaster. This time 2500.

Ten days ago (Swedish 

newspaper) 30 000, sometimes 30, other times 3

000, 11 000 or 75 000. 

Mothersalert discuss 150 000 (

http://www.mothersalert.org/ ) - forgot the 

number Rosalie B. has but there are probably many

zeroes involved (just as 

with her milliBq) - she gives 1.3 billion for

anything "nuclear". One thing 

is for sure:



There can only be one correct answer for acute

deaths (31 I believe) - and 

then different estimates depending on models and

assumptions regarding 

cancers - or as Sir Karl R. Popper wrote in 1962:

"Science is a collection of data which is to be

assembled in accordance with 

the collector's interests and points of views."

(The Open Society and its 

Enemies).



My personal reflections only,



Bjorn Cedervall





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