Re: Risks of low level radiation - New Scientist Article

["Jerry Cohen" <jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET>]

    Aren't all epidemiological studies suspect to some extent? I recall a

 British study a few decades ago involving multiple regression analysis of

several environmental factors that might effect the incidence of heart

disease. One result of this study indicated a strongly negative

correlation between heart disease and consumption of fried foods. This

result was very much contrary to  common wisdom and was dismissed

as likely due to confounding factors and/or other anomalies. It somehow

appears that Bernie Cohen's Radon studies may be meeting a similar fate.

    In this regard, couldn't one also discredit those studies indicating

smoking

as a causative factor for lung cancer on the basis of possible confounding

factors. One could hypothesize for example that there often occurs a certain

DNA configuration in  people that manifests itself in two unrelated effects.

One of these effects is an increased propensity toward smoking. The other

effect would be an increased susceptibility toward lung cancer. Since both

effects stem from a common DNA configuration, it would account for the

strong correlation between incidence of lung cancer  and smoking.

However, under this hypothesis, one could not conclude that smoking

causes lung cancer, but rather that  both effects stem form a common cause.

Assuming one possessing this DNA configuration could overcome their

inclination toward smoking, they would still retain their susceptibility

for lung cancer. Indeed many non-smokers get lung cancer and many smokers

do not.

    On the surface, this hypothesis may appear to be absurd, but  try to

prove it

wrong. That would be just as hard  as proving Cohen's Radon studies are

right, given the possible existence of unknown mysterious confounding

factors.





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