Re: Lancet Dec. 8th abstract - Chernobyl thyroid cancer incidence

[SAFarberMSPH@CS.COM]

Radsafe:


I've only read the abstract below posted by Michael Baker, but the data as presented in this abstract does not support the author's stated conclusion.


Prior to the accident, the abstract reports 31 cases of thyroid cancer among 9,742 births over a period of 3.3 years [Rate = 9.58 thyroid cancers per 10,000 births per year]


After the accident births from 4/27/86 to 12/31/86 report 1 thyroid cancer per 2,409 births over about 0.67 years [Rate = 6.22 thyroid cancers per 10,000 births per year]


From 1987 to 1989 there were no thyroid cancers observed among 9, 472 births. 


Accordingly, the rate of thyroid cancer dropped from 9.57 to 6.22 per 10,000 per year from before to the 8 months after the accident, to 0.0 thyroid cancers per 10,000 per year for 1987 to 1989.


This data as reported is just the opposite of the abstract's claim by the authors that:


"We investigated the cause of the striking increase in frequency of thyroid cancer in children born before and after the accident."


The data presented shows just the opposite to the stated conclusion. Am I missing something?


If someone has the full Lancet paper at their fingertips, could they please fax me a copy. Call first as I have to turn on my fax unit.


Thanks,


Stewart Farber, MS Public Health

Public Health Sciences

Warren, VT 05674

[802] 496-3356


In a message dated 12/10/01 11:15:21 AM Eastern Standard Time, mcbaker@LANL.GOV writes:



> 15 years after Chernobyl: new evidence of thyroid cancer
>
> Yoshisada Shibata, Shunichi Yamashita, Vladimir B Masyakin, Galina D 
>
> Panasyuk, Shigenobu Nagataki
>
>
> The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident happened on April 26, 1986. We 
>
> investigated the cause of the striking increase in frequency of thyroid 
>
> cancer in children who lived within a 150 km radius of Chernobyl and who 
>
> were born before and after the accident. No thyroid cancer was seen in 9472 
>
> children born in 1987-89, whereas one and 31 thyroid cancers were recorded 
>
> in 2409 children born April 27, 1986, to Dec 31, 1986, and 9720 born Jan 1, 
>
> 1983, to April 26, 1986, respectively. Short-lived radioactive fallout 
>
> caused by the Chernobyl accident probably induced thyroid cancer in 
>
> children living near Chernobyl.
>
>
> Lancet 2001; 358: 1965-66
>
>
> http://www.thelancet.com/journal/vol358/iss9297/full/llan.358.9297.original_research.18710
>
>
> ************************************************************************