Re:Reid challenges Price Anderson../Worst case /Nuclear waste

["Bjorn Cedervall" <bcradsafers@HOTMAIL.COM>]

From: "Jerry Cohen" <jjcohen@PRODIGY.NET>

Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 19:33:08 -0800



 > Worst case, maximum credible, worst realistic, maximum reasonably

 > forseeable, and similar concepts are all meaningless since they depend 

primarily on the imagination of the analyst.



I agree to 100 % in the mathematical strict sense - several astronomical 

phenomena could probably swiftly wipe us all out.

"There is no worst possible accident" - a good reading is a page with a 

similar/identical title in B L Cohen's book "Before it´s too late" (I don't 

have it at this moment but it is approx. page 60 I think). A point is that 

one has to put a limit somewhere regarding the assumptions.



A way to do avoid the problem may be to define the number of assumptions and 

also the related probabilities. It must be better to do that than do 

nothing. Then communicate it to the decision makers and media - with the 

help of someone who is a good on stage performer.



Take for instance the Swedis concept for handling nuclear waste - based on 

something like seven barrier principles. Essentially it is about muliplying 

probabilities.



Now - a "worst case" would be that no barrier works. This is not 

particularly realistic since we base much of the concept on wellknown 

principles such as thermodynamic stability, no driving (potential) forces 

and so on. Therefore one idea was to say: "Lets assume that something is 

wrong in the assumtions and one barrier simply does not work at all - then 

we should still be safe".



------



BTW - my professor in nuclear chemistry at the Royal Institute of Technology 

in Stockholm, Torbjörn Westermark, passed away (at age 78) about four months 

ago. He was a key in the development of how to handle our nuclear waste. He 

was also a great scientist with deep knowledge in many areas such as those 

relating to the environment (acid rain, mercury fallout, ornithology, botany 

and other areas). He dealt much with ethics & creativity - and the exams 

usually had questions that were not in the textbooks - one had to combine 

knowledge from the textbooks in unexpected ways - to the surprise or shock 

to some students. He also emphasized many historical science contexts and 

met many "names" that we can read about in "nuclear books".



I recall one time when we (only two students taking all the courses) had our 

two hour lectures - which often became four. After 90 minutes he says - "we 

should have a break". We stayed on our chairs and were offered some 

chocolate bars. Then we had a good discussion about the carcinogenic 

properties of fast food - hamburgers & french fries - Torbjörn W. was a 

member of the Swedish Cancer Commission 1979-1984. After 15 minutes he looks 

at his watch and says "lets go back to the actinides..." (there was no 

break).



It must be with great sadness that everyone who knew him now has to face 

that he is not with us any longer. I cannot properly reflect all the ideas, 

publications and actions that came from this kind and clever man.



My personal ideas only,



Bjorn Cedervall    bcradsafers@hotmail.com





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