Re: Radon and Smoking (individual vs aggregate)

["R. William Field" <bill-field@UIOWA.EDU>]

Field wrote: I addressed a very specific problem below with your study.  You

state that a

 basic theory takes into account, "the most important things."   I consider

smoking intensity and duration two of the most important parameters to

consider in validating your derived LNT formula.



Dr. Cohen wrote: I am testing the BEIR formulas, and they do not include

these

things



Field response:



Dr. Cohen, the BEIR formulas DO indeed include "these things".  As we

explained many years ago, HPJ 75(1), July 1998, page 13.    The BEIR model

is quite general and allows for any degree of control for smoking.  You can

include factors such as pack-year rate and duration of smoking in addition

to even non linear effects of smoking.  As was pointed out in BEIR IV, "The

choice of an appropriate age specific background rate for this calculation

involves proper treatment of smoking, sex, and calendar time."



Your previous response was that you "crudely" treat pack-year rate.  But

your crude treatment is  after the cross-level bias already occurred.  My

point which you have ignored for years is that you have not derived an

equivalent BEIR model.  You can not assume smoking intensity and duration,

are not important factors to include in your LNT derived formula.  Then

latter try to treat the problem of smoking intensity and duration by using

aggregate data.  You are not really testing the LNT using your formula.

Your findings do not convince me the LNT fails, I am only convinced that

your formula is not robust enough to test the LNT.  It is not surprising, as

Dr. Gilbert pointed out, that that your results are confounded by smoking,

because other smoking  related cancers are also negatively associated with

your county radon data.



Bill Field





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