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RE: ARTICLE: Fallout likely caused 15,000 deaths



The number '3' was used at the time of the 10-year update. The Rusians removed 2 because they were not exposed; and one with low dose exposure was judged to be medical error rather than thyroid cancer-caused. But UNSCEAR decided not to 'zero.'


It's not clear that the thyroid cancer was caused by I-131 ingestion. There's still inadequate correlation, and the doses from the large very short-lived radionuclide inventory (due to the combined effects of the massive reactivity power excursion with the essentially 'instantaneous' ejection of a major fraction of the core to the environment outside the reactor building) and the very aggressive cancers and very short latency compared to knowledge of I-131-induced cancer. 


The UNSCEAR 2000 Press Release says:



Issued during the 49th session of UNSCEAR

Vienna, 2 to 11 May 2000

VIENNA. 6 June 2000 (UN Information Service) --The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) has just approved its UNSCEAR 2000 Report to the General Assembly. This is a detailed assessment of radiation sources and health effects. Particular emphasis has been given to the evaluation of exposures and health consequences of the Chernobyl accident. 

The Chernobyl accident

According to the Committee’s scientific assessments, there have been about 1,800 cases of thyroid cancer in children who were exposed at the time of the accident, and if the current trend continues, there may be more cases during the next decades. Apart from this increase, there is no evidence of a major public health impact attributable to radiation exposure fourteen years after the accident. There is no scientific evidence of increases in overall cancer incidence or mortality or in non-malignant disorders that could be related to radiation exposure. The risk of leukaemia, one of the main concerns owing to its short latency time, does not appear to be elevated, not even among the recovery operation workers. Although those most highly exposed individuals are at an increased risk of radiation-associated effects, the great majority of the population are not likely to experience serious health consequences from radiation from the Chernobyl accident.

See also the full report (on the web - and my previous msgs with the content :-), and the 2001 Kiev meeting update (which included the countries complaining that they needed cash due to Chernobyl effects - like DOE and EPA and their minions :-).

Let me know if you find anything else / different!

Regards, Jim

	-----Original Message----- 

	From: Wes Van Pelt [mailto:wesvanpelt@att.net] 

	Sent: Thu 07-Mar-02 8:26 AM 

	To: Jim Muckerheide; radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu 


	Subject: RE: ARTICLE: Fallout likely caused 15,000 deaths



	Jim and All,

	I thought that there were at least a few dozen fatalities from thyroid

	uptake of radioiodine from Chernobyl. Of the 1000+ thyroid cancers I would

	certainly expect some mortality. Even though you give references, the

	statement "no related mortality reported" is hard to believe.



	Wesley R. Van Pelt, PhD, CIH, CHP

	Wesley R. Van Pelt Associates, Inc.

	Consulting in Radiation Safety and Environmental Radioactivity.






	The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic

	Radiation (UNSCEAR) has had to report that there are no deaths in the

	public even from the Chernobyl accident, though the surrounding

	population was not evacuated. Now, 16 years later, there is only a very

	small increase in the number of thyroid cancers primarily in persons who

	were children less than about 7 years old at the time of the accident,

	with no related mortality reported. This was confirmed in a June 2001

	meeting that included the World Health Organization (WHO) and the

	affected countries. Recently, the UNSCEAR, WHO conclusions were

	confirmed in a report including the UN Childrens Fund and UN Development



	Regards, Jim Muckerheide

	President, Radiation, Science, and Health

	Co-Director, Center for Nuclear Technology and Society at WPI







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