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RE: ARTICLE: Fallout likely caused 15,000 deaths
The number '3' was used at the time of the 10-year update. The Rusians removed 2 because they were not exposed; and one with low dose exposure was judged to be medical error rather than thyroid cancer-caused. But UNSCEAR decided not to 'zero.'
It's not clear that the thyroid cancer was caused by I-131 ingestion. There's still inadequate correlation, and the doses from the large very short-lived radionuclide inventory (due to the combined effects of the massive reactivity power excursion with the essentially 'instantaneous' ejection of a major fraction of the core to the environment outside the reactor building) and the very aggressive cancers and very short latency compared to knowledge of I-131-induced cancer.
The UNSCEAR 2000 Press Release says:
UNSCEAR FOCUSES ON CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT
IN GENERAL ASSEMBLY REPORT
Issued during the 49th session of UNSCEAR
Vienna, 2 to 11 May 2000
VIENNA. 6 June 2000 (UN Information Service) --The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) has just approved its UNSCEAR 2000 Report to the General Assembly. This is a detailed assessment of radiation sources and health effects. Particular emphasis has been given to the evaluation of exposures and health consequences of the Chernobyl accident.
The Chernobyl accident
According to the Committee’s scientific assessments, there have been about 1,800 cases of thyroid cancer in children who were exposed at the time of the accident, and if the current trend continues, there may be more cases during the next decades. Apart from this increase, there is no evidence of a major public health impact attributable to radiation exposure fourteen years after the accident. There is no scientific evidence of increases in overall cancer incidence or mortality or in non-malignant disorders that could be related to radiation exposure. The risk of leukaemia, one of the main concerns owing to its short latency time, does not appear to be elevated, not even among the recovery operation workers. Although those most highly exposed individuals are at an increased risk of radiation-associated effects, the great majority of the population are not likely to experience serious health consequences from radiation from the Chernobyl accident.
See also the full report (on the web - and my previous msgs with the content :-), and the 2001 Kiev meeting update (which included the countries complaining that they needed cash due to Chernobyl effects - like DOE and EPA and their minions :-).
Let me know if you find anything else / different!
From: Wes Van Pelt [mailto:email@example.com]
Sent: Thu 07-Mar-02 8:26 AM
To: Jim Muckerheide; firstname.lastname@example.org
Subject: RE: ARTICLE: Fallout likely caused 15,000 deaths
Jim and All,
I thought that there were at least a few dozen fatalities from thyroid
uptake of radioiodine from Chernobyl. Of the 1000+ thyroid cancers I would
certainly expect some mortality. Even though you give references, the
statement "no related mortality reported" is hard to believe.
Wesley R. Van Pelt, PhD, CIH, CHP
Wesley R. Van Pelt Associates, Inc.
Consulting in Radiation Safety and Environmental Radioactivity.
The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic
Radiation (UNSCEAR) has had to report that there are no deaths in the
public even from the Chernobyl accident, though the surrounding
population was not evacuated. Now, 16 years later, there is only a very
small increase in the number of thyroid cancers primarily in persons who
were children less than about 7 years old at the time of the accident,
with no related mortality reported. This was confirmed in a June 2001
meeting that included the World Health Organization (WHO) and the
affected countries. Recently, the UNSCEAR, WHO conclusions were
confirmed in a report including the UN Childrens Fund and UN Development
Regards, Jim Muckerheide
President, Radiation, Science, and Health
Co-Director, Center for Nuclear Technology and Society at WPI
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