Re: Chernobyl's Continuing Thyroid IMpact

[Tim <tstead@ntirs.org>]

Norm, just two points...



--- Norman Cohen <ncohen12@comcast.net> wrote:

> > On April 26th, 1986, the worst nuclear accident in

> history took place in the



Chernobyl was not an accident - it was incompetence,

but that is mere semantics and doesn't count towards

one of my tow points ;)



> > According to the World Health Organization, the

> Chernobyl nuclear disaster

> > will cause 50,000 new cases of thyroid cancer

> among young people living in

> > the areas most affected by the nuclear disaster.

> Specifically, the rate of

> > thyroid cancer in adolescents aged 15 to 18 is

> also now three times higher

> > than it was before the 1986 disaster took place.

> The incidence of thyroid

> > cancer in children rose 10-fold in children who

> lived in the Ukraine region.



O.K., the WHO is now playing Nostradamus and we should

beleive them?  Before predicting the future with the

WHO Tarot deck, maybe we should look at what ACTUALLY

has happened.  1800 thyroid cancers attributed to

Chernobyl in the past 16 years.



Also, the rate of thyroid cancer BEFORE Chernobyl blew

it's lid is not known with any amount of accuracy by

any stretch of the imagination.  They are only

guessing based on what data they think feels good to

them.



O.K., that was it my two points.  Oh, can I get a

thrid?  Let's assume that those thyroid cancers occur

in children over the next 20 years.  I don't know,

sounds like a good adolescent number.  If we use the

50,000 cancer number over (20+16) 36 years then that

gives an increse of cancer of 1390 per year.



That number is way off base with what has been

actually seen, but let's forget about that for the

time being.  Now, let's assume that 100% of those

(highly-treatable) thyroid cancers are fatal.  This

would mean that we would have to have about 22

Chernobyl-style accidents per year before we reached

the death rate that occurs by our decision to burn

fossil fuels to make electricity (30,000 deaths per

year).  That is one Chernobyl blowing it's lid every

17 days.



So, using the WHO numbers, the perceived safe method

of burning coal to make electricity is equivalent to a

complete core melt with a total containment breach

every 17 days.



And people STILL say that nuclear power is too

dangerous!



Regards,

Tim Steadham



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