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Re: Princeton Univ study on Salem Nukes and Terrorism
>From: Norman Cohen <ncohen12@comcast.net>
> > http://www.unplugsalem.org/casestudy.pdf
>Please note that this study was commissioned NOT by Unplug Salem but by the
>Coalition for Peace Action, an anti-nuclear weapons organization that has
>NOT taken a position on nuclear power.
Uh-huh. Looks like they just did.
>Please note that Dr Frank von Hippel
>and Dr Zia Mian were the supervising professors.
Don't forget to mention the Rev. Bob Moore.
>Feedback welcome.
It's a wonderfully unbiased report that is not riddled with errors nor
preconceived notions nor faulty assumptions nor errors in judgement nor
self-contradictions. It is nothing short of Genius with a captial "J". :-)
Here is just one example of an internal inconsistency.
Page 62 says containment is 250 feet high. Page 78 says approximately 200.
Here is just one of the gross errors in assumption:
The assumption of 100% cesium release (Appendix), while Chernobyl had a 30%
release fraction and TMI had a 0% fraction (1), is nothing short of
Brilliant with a capital "P".
Here is just one gross error in statement of fact, from p 61:
"The uranium dioxide fuel begins to melt at about 5100ºF. Fuel temperature
at full power is about 4100ºF." Let's just say 4100 is way, way off.
Here is just one gross error that should be obvious:
You needn't be a rocket scientist to see that a chart showing lifetime
cancer risk of 100%, 100 km from the source, is complete garbage (page 129).
Here is just one example of a error caused by preconceived notions:
Page 79:" We will assume that the plane hits the contain-ment
structure square on, the engine is incompressible, and the linear behavior
of the steel reinforced concrete dominates. This is actually a very
conservative estimate since it does not take into account the rest of the
aircraft (including the other engines) or the fuel
explosion." No. It is conservative, because it is more likely to result in
the answer you are looking for - a direct hit, incompressible engine, etc.
Then they go on to say, on page 81 that the engine diameter is judged to
correspond to the diameter of the spindle (hey, why not, that makes sense,
eh?). Then the containment becomes 10 feet thick, and the yield strength
comes from a phone call, and the building is assumed to fail as soon as
yield strength is exceeded. Pure baloney. By the way, the crush strength
of reinforced concrete is only on the order of 5000 psi, but that doesn't
mean it will fail.
The PW4000 engine actually has a fan tip diameter of 94 inches. Plug that
into your bogus calculation and see what you get. Or, plug it into the
Modified Petry Formula (2) in the Salem Tech Specs section 3.5. Using 30",
you'll get a penetration of 6.1 feet. Using 94", you get 0.62 feet
penetration. The real answer is probably somewhere in between. (3)
If one is going to be arrogant enough to announce to the world that "this
analysis indicates that a Boeing 767 could penetrate
the containment structure", while the NRC is studying it, one should be
ready for some ridicule.
Yes, there are many more examples of errors in this report. I'd point them
out, but I prefer not to. Please continue to pass it along as a credible
study.
For more on Salem containment, see
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Know_Nukes/message/1343
Regards,
Jim
(P.S., Norm, I'm posting this to UnplugSalem, as I often do. Show us your
character and let it though, or don't. Unpluggers, please cc your reply to
Know_Nukes. Thanks.)
1. http://www.lei.lt/insc/handbook/hab4/hab45.html
2. Penetration = KW/A * log (1 + V^2/215000)
K = 0.00282 or 0.00476 (I used 282 assuming strong concrete)
A = missile area in ft^2
W = Weight in lbs
V = Vel in ft/sec
Not that I'm claiming this equation is applicable to an engine. It's meant
for an incompressible impact of a telephone pole end.
3. See containment pictures which show massive rebar at
http://photos.groups.yahoo.com/group/Know_Nukes/lst
--
Hold the door for the stranger behind you. When the driver a
half-car-length in front of you signals to get over, slow down. Smile and
say "hi" to the folks you pass on the sidewalk. Give blood. Volunteer.
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