RE: Cancer clusters

["Hart, Tim P GS (RASO)" <harttp@RASO.NAVY.MIL>]

Not that you would ever have an issue to push on the Public, right John.



Tim Hart

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-----Original Message-----

From: Jacobus, John (OD/ORS) [mailto:jacobusj@ors.od.nih.gov]

Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 12:24 PM

To: 'Gibbs, S Julian'; Radsafe Mail list

Subject: RE: Cancer clusters





I think cancer cluster provide a useful function in generating a source of

income for epidemiologists.  Or those who have a issue to push on the

public.



-- John 

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist 

3050 Traymore Lane

Bowie, MD  20715-2024



E-mail:  jenday1@email.msn.com (H)      



-----Original Message-----

From: Gibbs, S Julian [mailto:s.julian.gibbs@vanderbilt.edu]

Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 11:48 AM

To: Radsafe Mail list

Subject: Cancer clusters





The frequency of cancer cases, as all random events, obeys Poisson 

statistics.  This not only allows, but it predicts, that clusters 

will occur.  For example, let us say that the mean annual number of 

new cancer cases in a village of a certain size is 10.  The Poisson 

equation then shows that approximately one such village in 500 will 

have 20 or more new cases per year.  Not at all unreasonable!

It is necessary to determine the probability of existence of a 

cancer cluster from random statistics before searching for a 

specific cause.

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