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RE: Cancer deficiency clusters, "U" in Workers
Howard,
I am not sure what you think I wrote. I never said any thing about lung
cancers in mountain states or Iowa. ( I notice that you have trouble
following threads on e-mails. You also bring issues into the thread that
are irrelevant.) The study was looking at leukemia and blood neoplasms,
which I believe are a more sensitive indicator of penetrating ionizing
radiation than the use of lung cancers. I think the comments about lung
cancer are intriguing, as I would expect the rate to be similar in all
groups and that of the general population. To me, this indicates (1) this
study is not reflective of the general population since the lung cancer
rates are higher but the overall cancer rates are lower than those of the
public. Also, (2) as a cohort study it is not sensitive enough to indicate
what the effects of radiation are, good or bad, below 10 mSv for leukemia
and blood neoplasms in this study. (To extrapolate beyond this work
presented is speculative, at best. I guess you can conclude that a U shaped
response can be drawn from the fact that only the non-nuclear works has a
statistically higher incidence of lung cancer from this study. However, if
asbestos exposures and smoking were not controlled for in the analysis, than
the question of radiation and lung cancer rates is irrelevant. Don't you
agree?)
Again, Matanoski (which is the correct spelling of her name) is an
epidemiologist. John Cameron is not. I am a health physicist and not an
epidemiologist, and rely on a more professional, e.g., an epidemiological,
review of the data. Is Dr. Pollycove an epidemiologist? Mulkerheide? You?
You constantly point to studies that support your views, but ignore those
that do not. Do I detect a bit of bias? Or ignorance of the scientific
process? Research experiments are performed to test speculations
(hypotheses), but a complete review of the literature, such as done in NCRP
136 needs to be done periodically to see how all the data fits together.
Who knows, maybe some of the work on low radiation effects sponsored by DOE
(see http://emsp.em.doe.gov/announcements/fr99%5F14.html ) will provide some
of this information.
I have read parts of the Feinendegen and Pollycove review article in the
first SNM you referenced. I wished you had provided the proper title and
page reference. I find the dual radiation response at low doses interesting
and a plausible hypothesis. It is a shame not all of the studies support
this hypothesis. I guess my concern is that while most of these studies
detail the immediate tumor response to low radiation, what are the resulting
effects after a long period of time. As you know, most medical studies
follow patients for only a short period of time. Cancer studies usually
consider treatment responses or remissions for 5 years. While moderate
doses or radiation appears to induce repair mechanism, are any damaged and
potentially cancer-inducing cells escaping? I think GOOD epidemiological
studies of populations that are continual exposed to more than average
background radiation levels would be interesting. Particularly if higher
cellular immune factors do not reduce the cancer rates compared to control
groups.
I really think you need to expand you reading of the literature. You need
to read the literature critically to arrive at a some sense of what the data
shows and what the problems might be in getting to the conclusions.
-- John
John Jacobus, MS
Certified Health Physicist
3050 Traymore Lane
Bowie, MD 20715-2024
E-mail: jenday1@email.msn.com (H)
-----Original Message-----
From: hflong@postoffice.pacbell.net
[mailto:hflong@postoffice.pacbell.net]
Sent: Monday, July 22, 2002 10:59 AM
To: Jacobus, John (OD/ORS)
Cc: 'RadSafe'
Subject: Re: Cancer deficiency clusters, "U" in Workers
John (and all following MORE radiation need)
You observe that lung cancer rates are higher in coast areas than mountain
states (or Iowa) - and less when exposure is 0.5 rem (5 mSv) to 1.0 rem (10
mSv) THAN EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW that dose. This supports a "U" rather than
linear (LNT) dose effect.
This differs, indeed, from Mantoski's inference, that " there is no
consistent
dose response with radiation, which would suggest that radiation is not the
factor -.".
You suggest asbestos, where I infer a "U" dose effect (non LNT) to explain
the
data.
References (not "speculation"):
Cameron, one of the NSWS tech Advisory Committee, (below).
Myron Pollycove PhD MD, Ludwig Feinendigen MD, Biologic and Epidemiologic
Foundations of Radiation Hormesis J Nuc Med 42(7)(9),2001.
Numerous studies catalogued by Muckerheide aand B Cohen on line.
I arranged for Pollycove to present hormesis to our skeptical classmates at
UCSF
50th reunion and have carefully reviewed repeated presentations by him,
Bernie
Cohen, TD Luckey, Muckerheide and others at Doctors for Disaster
Preparedness
meetings, like,
THIS WEEKEND at Sheraton Colorado Springs, Y'ALL COME! Program is at
www.oism.org/ddp. Call 520-325-2680. Cost is only $150 for 16 presentations
by
Zebroski, Cuttler, Lowell Wood, etc, (2 lunches and banquet), with
arrangements
to question and visit with the luminaries. Howard Long
"Jacobus, John (OD/ORS)" wrote:
> Howard,
> But if we question the validity of statistical cluster that show a higher
> increase of cancer near a power plant, it should be, and is, statistically
> probable that studies will show a statistical cluster of healthful effects
> of radiation.
>
> You noted the Nuclear Shipyard Worker Study. It you like, I will send a
> copy of the abstract written by one of the authors of the study, Dr.
> Genevieve Matanoski. It appeared in Radiation Research 133, 126-127
(1993).
> (I think it is important to supply references rather than speculations,
> don't you?) Quoting the abstract:
>
> "The data clearly indicate that both nuclear worker groups have a lower
> mortality from leukemia and lymphatic and hematopoietic cancers than does
> the nonnuclear group. All three groups have lower rates than the general
> population. However, if the NW<5.0 or the 5.0-9.0 mSv group is used for
> comparison, than all dose groups 10 mSv and above in the NW>/= 5.0 group
> have higher mortality rates that the NW<5.0 group for both leukemia and
all
> lymphatic hematopoietic neoplasms. There is no consistent dose response
> with radiation, which would suggest that radiation is not the factor
> associated with the increase. . . . The SMRs are very sensitive to any
> changes, such as lagging, due to small numbers, so these within-group
> observations may simply represent chance variations."
>
> A couple of simplistic observations, since I am not an epidemiologist but
> feel that I can understand the basics. First, this is a cohort study,
which
> may not have any relevance to public exposures. I guess that if you want
to
> reduce your risk of cancer, you should work in Naval shipyard, since "All
> three groups have lower rates than the general population." Second, the
> risk mortality increases at occupational exposures above 10 mSv. Third,
> other factors that were not considered, such as asbestos exposures, may
> influence the results as they may be more important than the factor,
> radiation, that is being studied. For example, the study indicates that
the
> mortality from lung cancer for all groups was higher than that of the
> general population. But only the non-nuclear workers had a statistically
> significant increase. I guess you can conclude that radiation reduces the
> risk of lung cancer in this cohort. Of course, I would rather a more
> qualified epidemiologist than I review the data. While I admire John
> Cameron for his work, he is not an epidemiologist either.
>
> -- John
> John Jacobus, MS
> Certified Health Physicist
> 3050 Traymore Lane
> Bowie, MD 20715-2024
>
> E-mail: jenday1@email.msn.com (H)
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: hflong@postoffice.pacbell.net
> [mailto:hflong@postoffice.pacbell.net]
> Sent: Friday, July 19, 2002 7:03 AM
> To: jjcohen
> Cc: Gibbs, S Julian; Jacobus, John (OD/ORS); Radsafe Mail list
> Subject: Re: Cancer deficiency clusters
>
> Yes, Jerry,
> Such a study has been done on 27,872 nuclear shipyard workers - but until
> recently only reported as not showing expected increase in cancer.
>
> John Cameron, one of 8 members of the technical advisory committee of the
> Nuclear Shipyard Workers Study reports, "The cancer death rate of the
NW>0.5
> group [those receiving an extra 0.5 rem] was over 4 std.dev. lower than
the
> NNW control group [non-nuclear workers of similar ages and jobs]. This
good
> news is not mentioned but the data are available in the final report."
> http://www.aps.org/units/fps/oct01/a5oct01.html
> . . .
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