[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
RE: Sydney Morning Herald says 5000 died of radiation at Chernobyl
Dr. Raabe,
Thanks for your response. In the book I cited they gave an indication of
thyroid cancers and indicated 3 death attributable to thyroid cancer. In a
quick look I could not find the 1200 case figure I had remembered although a
table of cases that totaled about 850, it had cases broken down by country
and 5 year increments. Thirty cases pre Chernobyl 81-85. It also stated
that it was certain there would be an increase with a concerted effort to
screen for the cases but that that could not possibly explain the increase.
Anyway I do not think thyroid cancers could be at the bottom of that number.
I was wondering if it might be related to recovery workers. Apparently at
least some got doses in excess of 1 Gray [100 rads] but the information was
real sketchy at best about numbers that actually got those kind of doses.
One presumes it was a small number. Initially dose was apparently estimated
and not measured by dosimeters.
So I suspect you are right it is some form of LNT extrapolation. If it had
been an order of magnitude higher I would have dismissed it as such.
Peter
-----Original Message-----
From: Otto G. Raabe [mailto:ograabe@ucdavis.edu]
Sent: Thursday, May 08, 2003 12:57 PM
To: Vernig, Peter G.; radsafe
Subject: Re: Sydney Morning Herald says 5000 died of radiation at
Chernobyl
At 10:03 AM 5/8/03 -0700, Vernig, Peter G. wrote:
>Group,
>
>"One of the four reactors at Chernobyl exploded on April 26, 1986, after a
>safety test went wrong. About 5000 people have died as a result of the
>accident, many of them within days of being exposed to high radiation as
>they tackled the ensuing fire.
************************************************
May 8, 2003
Besides the early worker deaths, UNSCEAR calls attention to about 2000
thyroid cancer cases, but thyroid cancer is not usually fatal. They found
no increase in leukemia or indication of other cancer. More than likely,
this 5000 deaths is a mathematical estimate based on some LNT risk model
rather an actual body count.
Otto
**********************************************
Prof. Otto G. Raabe, Ph.D., CHP
Center for Health & the Environment
(Street Address: Bldg. 3792, Old Davis Road)
University of California, Davis, CA 95616
E-Mail: ograabe@ucdavis.edu
Phone: (530) 752-7754 FAX: (530) 758-6140
***********************************************
************************************************************************
You are currently subscribed to the Radsafe mailing list. To unsubscribe,
send an e-mail to Majordomo@list.vanderbilt.edu Put the text "unsubscribe
radsafe" (no quote marks) in the body of the e-mail, with no subject line.
You can view the Radsafe archives at http://www.vanderbilt.edu/radsafe/