Re: AW: Chernobyl thyroid doses ?

[John, Jacobus]

With regard to Dr. Jaworowski assessment, researchers

that I have talked to beleve that there reported

increase of thyroid cancers in children around

Chernobyl is a real effect.  Granted, not all were due

to the Chernobyl fallout, but there is no doubt that

many are.  



Part of this is based in itself on the incidence of

childhood cancers.  They are rare in children, which

is why the correlation stood out so profoundly.  For

information on age related thyroid in the U.S., see

the "Age Group,'Expanded' Race and Sex" link at 

http://seer.cancer.gov/faststats/html/pre_thyro.html



It is expected that the juvenile thyroid is more

sensitive to radiation effects as is it is still

growing and actively supporting the growing child.  I

believe this was seen in children treated for ring

worms.  I would be hesitant to compare the exposure of

30 000 Swedes to iodine (adults treated for Graves'

disease?) to a similar number of children, or any of

the other incidence rates Dr. Jaworowski quotes.  It

would be expected that "occult" cancers developed late

in life, as that is when the "active" cancers are

diagnosed.  Also, a child with thyroid function

abnormalities would display significant developmental

problems.



While adults can be adequately treated with thyroid

homone raplacements continue to live a normal life, I

am not aware of any long term study of children.



--- Franz Schoenhofer <franz.schoenhofer@CHELLO.AT>

wrote:



. . .

>     ----- Original Message -----

>     From: Zbigniew Jaworowski

>     To: Jerry Cuttler

>     Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003 2:18 PM

>     Subject: Re: A question regarding the mortality

> of Chernobyl thyroid

> cancer cases

> 

> 

> 

>     Dear Jerry,

> 

>     I believe that the radiation doses to the

> thyroid in the highly

> contaminated regions of the former USSR were not

> high enough to produce

> thyroid cancers. In the famous Gomel region

> (Belarus) the average dose was

> 177 mGy, in Bryansk region (Russia) 37 mGy, and in

> eight most contaminated

> districts in Ukraine 380 mGy (UNSCEAR 2000 vol. 2,

> page 537, Table 40).

> These doses are smaller than doses received by about

> 30 000 Swedish patients

> diagnosed with 131-I, among which no increase but a

> deficit of thyroid

> cancers was found.

> 

> 

>     From the text of "Chapter V" it appears that

> there was more than 4000

> thyroid cancers in the Belarus alone, and they were

> regarded as a Chernobyl

> effect. According to UNSCEAR data, and from what I

> heard during

> presentations of Dr. Ivanov (Russia) and Dr.

> Keningsberg (Belarus), during

> the 2003 UNSCEAR meeting, the total number of

> thyroid cancers counted as

> caused by Chernobyl radiation is about 2000, and the

> total deaths due to

> these cancers was about 3 children.

> 

> 

>     The first increase in thyroid cancers was

> recorded in Russia already in

> 1987, which disagrees with all that we know about

> radiogenic cancers. The

> maximum incidence of thyroid cancers (Bryansk

> region) was in 1994 of 0.027%.

> This should be compared with the incidence of

> "occult" thyroid cancers,

> which are present in populations of all countries,

> and range between 5.6% in

> Colombia, 9% in Poland, 10% in Minsk (Belarus), 13%

> in the contiguous USA,

> 28% in Hawaii and 35% in Finland. This shows how

> great is the potential for

> the screening effect.

> 

> 

>     These occult cancers are histollogically the

> same as "Chernobyl"

> cancers - invasive and aggressive. However, they do

> not pose clinical

> problems during the lifetime of a person in which,

> earlier, they usually

> were discovered at the post mortem, and now more

> often by USG examination.

> Thyroid cancers with clinical symptoms have a good

> prospect of cure; up to

> 95% are cured.

> 

. . .





=====

-- John

John Jacobus, MS

Certified Health Physicist

e-mail:  crispy_bird@yahoo.com



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