AW: Chernobyl thyroid doses ?

[Franz, Schoenhofer]

Dear Jaro,



Today is July 4th, 2003. The Chernobyl accident happend in April 1986. There

have been hundreds or rather thousands if not tens of thousands of

publications on this accident. There have even been not so few authored by

international authorative bodies like the IAEA, WHO etc. Many organisations

made their own estimations - unless they are checked and found correct I

would not recommend to use them. It seems natural that somebody who worked

for instance for the fire brigades had a dramatic higher I-131 uptake than a

peasant 500 km away. So, please inform me, what this discrepancies are

about? They have to happen, of course.



Let me state one very crucial thing: Nobody is interested in the Chernobyl

accident any more, except a few groups who try to make money by installing

"emergency systems" in Europe and the same is true for TMI, for previous

accidents in the USA (IDAHO) and even more for "XXX" a swiss accident

resulting in meltdown.



Franz









    -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----

    Von: owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu

[mailto:owner-radsafe@list.vanderbilt.edu]Im Auftrag von Franta, Jaroslav

    Gesendet: Freitag, 04. Juli 2003 17:13

    An: Radsafe (E-mail)

    Betreff: Chernobyl thyroid doses ?





    This message from Dr. Jaworowski was posted on another listserv.

    I find it surprising to see such low radiation doses to the thyroid in

the highly contaminated regions of the former USSR - particularly the Gomel

region (Belarus).



    I seem to recall reading somewhere that thyroid doses as high as several

thousand rem were received by individuals contaminated with I-131 in the

early post-accident fallout.



    Would anyone in Radsafe be able to clarify this, please ?

    Thanks.



    Jaro





    ----- Original Message -----

    From: Zbigniew Jaworowski

    To: Jerry Cuttler

    Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003 2:18 PM

    Subject: Re: A question regarding the mortality of Chernobyl thyroid

cancer cases







    Dear Jerry,



    I believe that the radiation doses to the thyroid in the highly

contaminated regions of the former USSR were not high enough to produce

thyroid cancers. In the famous Gomel region (Belarus) the average dose was

177 mGy, in Bryansk region (Russia) 37 mGy, and in eight most contaminated

districts in Ukraine 380 mGy (UNSCEAR 2000 vol. 2, page 537, Table 40).

These doses are smaller than doses received by about 30 000 Swedish patients

diagnosed with 131-I, among which no increase but a deficit of thyroid

cancers was found.





    From the text of "Chapter V" it appears that there was more than 4000

thyroid cancers in the Belarus alone, and they were regarded as a Chernobyl

effect. According to UNSCEAR data, and from what I heard during

presentations of Dr. Ivanov (Russia) and Dr. Keningsberg (Belarus), during

the 2003 UNSCEAR meeting, the total number of thyroid cancers counted as

caused by Chernobyl radiation is about 2000, and the total deaths due to

these cancers was about 3 children.





    The first increase in thyroid cancers was recorded in Russia already in

1987, which disagrees with all that we know about radiogenic cancers. The

maximum incidence of thyroid cancers (Bryansk region) was in 1994 of 0.027%.

This should be compared with the incidence of "occult" thyroid cancers,

which are present in populations of all countries, and range between 5.6% in

Colombia, 9% in Poland, 10% in Minsk (Belarus), 13% in the contiguous USA,

28% in Hawaii and 35% in Finland. This shows how great is the potential for

the screening effect.





    These occult cancers are histollogically the same as "Chernobyl"

cancers - invasive and aggressive. However, they do not pose clinical

problems during the lifetime of a person in which, earlier, they usually

were discovered at the post mortem, and now more often by USG examination.

Thyroid cancers with clinical symptoms have a good prospect of cure; up to

95% are cured.





    Best wishes,



    Zbigniew



    ----- Original Message -----

    From: Jerry Cuttler

    To: Zbigniew Jaworowski

    Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 4:06 P

    Subject: A question regarding the mortality of Chernobyl thyroid cancer

cases







    Dear Dr. Jaworowski,



    I hope you are having a pleasant summer.

    I have a short question, which I hope you can answer for me.

    I just read Chapter V (attached) of the 2002 update of the NEA report,

Chernobyl: Ten Years On.

    The section on thyroid cancer includes the sentences:



    "The histology of the cancers has shown that nearly all were papillary

carcinomata and that they were particularly aggressive, often with prominent

local invasion and distant metastases, usually to the lungs.  This has made

the treatment of these children less successful than expected, whether

undertaken in Minsk or in specialised centres in Europe."





    Based on these two sentences, I would have expected many fatalities.

But later on in the text, the following sentence appears:





    "At the time of this writing, three of the 1036 children cited in Table

13 below have died of their disease."



    As of 2002, how many of these children have actually died of thyroid

cancer?



    Thanks for your help in clarifying this matter.



    Best wishes,



    Jerry

    ------------------------------

    Dr. Jerry M. Cuttler

    jerrycuttler@rogers.com